The Baltimore Orioles have seemingly been in perpetual pursuit of starting rotation upgrades as they emerged from their years-long rebuild at the end of last decade. Their position player corps is robust, with top draft picks littering the field in their uniforms each and every day. But the primary culprit for why they’ve fallen from the 101 win team in 2023 back to last place in the AL East is their lack of starting-caliber arms to put on the mound every 1st inning.
Last season, they received just
8.1 fWAR from all their starting pitchers combined, better than only the rebuilding St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Angels, Oaklamento A’s, and Colorado Rockies. The Cincinnati Reds, for instance, effectively doubled that mark (16.1 fWAR). Baltimore only furthered their need for starters by watching veterans Zach Eflin and Charlie Morton reach free agency and shipping former top prospect Grayson Rodriguez and what’s left of his right shoulder to the Angels for outfielder Taylor Ward earlier this offseason.
They’ll presumably get some of Kyle Bradish back, who’s excellent – when healthy. He returned from Tommy John surgery late last year and looked like his old self, but that’s after missing most all of the previous two seasons. It’s a similar story for Tyler Wells, who missed most of the last two seasons with a UCL injury, too, though he’s not of the same caliber as Bradish (when healthy). They’ll back Trevor Rogers – when healthy – who overcame a dislocated knee during the 2025 season to pitch better than he ever had during the latter half of the season. Add-in the bulk innings eaten by Dean Kremer, and that’s the makings of what could be a half-decent rotation for 2026…if healthy.
Still, there were durability concerns all up and down that group, as well as some serious lack of real ‘upside’ within it. So, it was unsurprising to see them jump for Tampa starter Shane Baz in a trade earlier this week, a deal for a former top prospect who oozes upside and comes with three full seasons of team control.
What was surprising, though, is just how much they had to give up to get Baz. As MLB Trade Rumors confirmed, Tampa will get outfielder Slater de Brun and catcher Caden Bodine – both 1st round draft picks from the most recent MLB Draft – as well as righty Michael Forret, outfielder Austin Overn, and a Competitive Balance Round A pick in the upcoming 2026 draft. Forret was a consensus Top 10 prospect within Baltimore’s system after an excellent 2025 season in the minors, while Baltimore spent over $7 million combined to sign de Brun and Bodine after they were two of their four picks in the 1st round this summer. And de Brun, it’s worth pointing out for relative value’s sake, was technically a Competitive Balance Round A pick.
Despite all of his hype, he’s coming off a 2025 season in which he pitched to a 4.87 ERA (4.37 FIP) and 1.34 WHIP across 166.1 IP down in Tampa, though he did so while their home ball park was the A-ball site of the New York Yankees affiliate after their own home dome was minced in Hurricane Milton. He yielded 18 dingers in those incredibly cozy confines (in only 82.1 IP there), his 5.90 ERA in that stadium a far cry from the 3.86 mark he put up in 84.0 IP elsewhere last season. He also gave up only 8 homers on the road last year.
Still, that was all from a 26 year old pitching in the first full big league season of his career. He fired 79.1 IP of much better ball (3.06 ERA, 4.07 FIP) for the Rays in 2024, but that came after missing all of the 2023 season due to an elbow injury and having logged just 40.1 IP of 4.02 ERA ball across the two seasons prior. So, despite all of Baz’s reputation – former 1st round pick, Top 10 overall prospect prior to 2022 by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus – the reality is he’s a guy with three controllable years remaining who’s been valued at a grand total of 3.1 bWAR/3.4 fWAR in 286 career big league innings, to date.
There’s ample value to that player, sure. It just seems like Baltimore was willing to throw more quantity to acquire that player than I would have ever estimated, even if there’s still a lot of question marks about just how top-end the quality of those players may be down the road.
It’s a pretty stunning tell for the trade market for controllable starting pitchers, something that I’m sure the Cincinnati Reds both a) know and b) help set themselves. Given their preponderance of controllable starters of varying quality and control, I’d be shocked if Baltimore hadn’t kicked tires on what it would take to pry away Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, Nick Lodolo, or even Hunter Greene from the Reds – and that none of those players got moved tells me the Reds asking price was as high or higher than what it took to get Baz. There are only so many teams currently trying to contend that are desperate for starting pitching and so many teams currently trying to contend that have potentially enough wealth of it to spare, after all.
That’s a concept I looked at closer just nine days ago when, on paper, it sure looked like the Reds and Orioles could line up for a deal. At the time, though, I wondered openly if the Reds might look for something more ready-made at the big league level in exchange for one of their controllable arms, and it’s clear in the Baz deal that Tampa was much more willing to accept players who won’t see a big league game anytime soon than this Reds team likely was.
Baltimore could still be on the hunt for another controllable arm, but likely not at that steep of a prospect cost. So, for a Reds club that’s looking at ways to improve their roster on a shoestring budget, that may well be one potential trade partner that’s now off the table for them. You can make the case that pretty much any pitcher in the Reds regular rotation would make the rotation of any other club much better, but there are only so many teams out there who’d be willing to pay what it would take for the Reds to make that kind of move – and Baltimore sure seemed like the club in the most desperate of positions in that regard.
Now? That path seems a lot muddier.
