The Dallas Cowboys Monday Night Football win against the Las Vegas Raiders was an emphatic one, but in the week-to-week nature of the NFL it stands to be forgotten about by Sunday evening – or not. The win has
Cowboys fans feeling confident ahead of a home matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, and the fact the Cowboys nearly won the road meeting in week one between these teams is a reason for confidence as well. A win would make all of the positives on both sides of the ball from the Raiders win more tangible as things this Cowboys team can actually hang their hat on going into the final month of the regular season after Thanksgiving.
A Cowboys loss to the Eagles stands to create a toppling dominos effect, putting them right back in an alternating win/loss pattern with little time to snap it and prove they belong anywhere near the playoff picture, while also calling into question the total quality of any of their wins. The Cowboys need to play like they need this game obviously, but not with the full sense of the “desperate team” label that can lead to mistakes against a team so good at playing even-keeled and capitalizing on opponent mistakes like the Eagles.
The Cowboys defense played well at defensive tackle and linebacker against the run in the first meeting at the Eagles, but struggled on the edges, at cornerback, and safety against the pass. Dallas has reasons to feel even better about their front seven against both the run and pass going into Sunday’s game after Quinnen Williams made an immediate impact in his first game against the Raiders last Monday, and Logan Wilson was an important cog to add depth to the rotation at linebacker. The Cowboys were able to trust their front led by Williams, Kenny Clark, and Osa Odighizuwa inside to allow their linebackers to commit to coverage, something that could help limit easy completions for Jalen Hurts, who went 19-23 for 152 yards in the Week 1 win.
The Cowboys looked like a new team in a lot of ways in their win in Las Vegas. Does the totality of this make them a new enough team that can overcome still being a game under .500 and without consecutive wins going into Week 12, and reach these marks against the Eagles? Let’s take our weekly look at what the Cowboys need to do to win, and what the Eagles can most easily do to earn a season sweep in Arlington.
The Dallas Cowboys will beat the Philadelphia Eagles if…
they can hold up in the secondary.
For all of the talk about the Cowboys changes on defense in the front seven, some of the changes they’ve gone through at cornerback have gone way more under the radar. Trevon Diggs has not played since the Week 6 loss at the Panthers, and has been picked on in coverage when he has been available this season. DaRon Bland has had his ups and downs playing as the team’s primary cornerback in the games without Diggs. Against the Raiders though, the Cowboys had second-year cornerback Caelen Carson on the field for 100% of defensive snaps as well as rookie Shavon Revel making his NFL debut. How well Carson and Revel can hold up against a good passing offense remains to be seen, as the Raiders certainly tried to test this out with 42 passing attempts, but with so many of them coming with Geno Smith under duress it was not a true test for the Cowboys secondary.
A bigger area that Bland, Carson, and Revel will have to be sound against the Eagles is in run defense, as well as tackling in space after the catch. The Cowboys were poor in these areas in their prior loss to the Eagles. One of the new elements the defense showed against the Raiders was a much stronger structure to their underneath zone coverages thanks to linebackers being able to drop to spots quickly, and playing with more backers on the field while trusting the front to play with great gap integrity. This should also help against the Eagles short passing attack, but at some point it’s going to be inevitable that A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith will be isolated against one of the Cowboys corners, and Dallas will need to win the matchup.
Brown is coming off a season-high 11 targets against the Lions, but a one-yard Hurts rushing touchdown was still the only time the Eagles found the end zone. Brown seeing a target increase is just the latest twist and turn in what’s been a weird saga between a receiver capable of dominating games, and an offense that hasn’t really allowed him to do so. A fantastic next step for the Eagles keeping Brown happy would be seeing him get things going against the Cowboys. That Week 1 game stands as his worst game of the season to date, as Brown had just one catch for eight yards.
The Cowboys need to do their best to win the big play differential in this game, against an opponent that wouldn’t even mind conceding this differential in the pass game so long as they’re sustaining drives with high-percentage throws and running the ball well. For the Cowboys to make the typical big plays they’re accustomed to at home mean as much as possible, they need to eliminate similar chunk pass plays from the Eagles at a high level, which will fall heavily on some inexperienced players and those just returning from injury in the secondary.
The Dallas Cowboys will lose to the Philadelphia Eagles if…
they can’t run the ball.
We just mentioned the Cowboys winning the big pass play differential as a key to winning this game, and doing so in the ground game would really see Dallas gain and edge at home. The Cowboys don’t need to outrush the Eagles to win however, but they do need to see a game script that allows them to stick with the run game consistently.
The Eagles live to play games where they control the pace and the scoring with their own rushing attack, and if they take the early lead by doing so while limiting the Cowboys’ possessions, Dallas will be losing a key element to their multiple offense. The Cowboys threw the ball 34 times compared to 22 rushes in the road game at Philly, but finished in the red zone on their first two drives with short yardage Javonte Williams scores. Last week against the Raiders, the Cowboys were more balanced with 33 passes to 31 runs, and although Williams did not score he had his most yards since the team’s last win against the Commanders.
For the first time all year, Malik Davis also looked somewhat viable as an option to spell Williams and still run hard between the tackles. Just like the Cowboys will be trusting their defensive interior to stop these types of runs, the Eagles front can make running inside even tougher. The Cowboys at least need to test the Eagles defense in this way enough to make their play-action game effective, which it was against the Raiders to get all three elements humming.
The Eagles held Jared Goff to 14 of 37 passing with an interception in their Sunday night home win last week, and with that lead back Jahmyr Gibbs only had 39 rushing yards the week after having 142 against the Commanders. The types of easy throws the Lions are known to create for Goff were not there with Fangio’s defense able to sit on them and not fully respect the threat of the run game. The Cowboys pass offense has fallen into similar traps before, especially against this defense, so avoiding that by continuing to spread the ball around will be one key – the other bigger one being running the ball.
The Cowboys having a 7-0 and 14-7 lead against the Eagles in Week 1 didn’t last long either time, but if that type of start repeats itself at home with the improvements the defense has made, it could mean a whole lot more here in a pivotal Week 12 rivalry game.
