Howdy and welcome back to Fun With Numbers. This is where we talk analytics and stats, and what they mean for the Aggies and their upcoming opponents. Let’s just take a moment and appreciate what a fun
and special N(ine and)ovember it has been so far, and enjoy the fact that for what feels like the first time in a long time, our numbers have actually been fun.
We good? Okay. Great. Let’s dive in.
How’d We Do Last Week?
The Aggies went on the road once more and brought back a W to College Station. Despite a first half where the Missouri defense did a great job of stymieing the Aggies’ big play ability and the defense allowing too many big plays on the ground, the good guys cruised to a nice and easy victory to cap off what was largely considered to be the most difficult stretch of the schedule.
What Do We Know?
The Aggies host the South Carolina Gamecocks on Saturday at Kyle Field. It’s a rematch from last year’s game which seemed to completely derail the Aggie season, and one of the final opportunities to win the much desired Bonham Trophy as we prepare to say goodbye to this nonsense contrivalry and move into the new era of SEC scheduling. The Gamecocks have disappointed a bit in Beamer’s 5th season as the head man, they’re 3-6 and rode a 4 game losing streak into a much needed bye week. They’ve had some firings, including Offensive Coordinator Mike Shula last week. They’re about as far on the ropes as you can be at this point in the season, needing to win out to go bowling, but walking into an SEC opponent’s stadium as an 18 point underdog. The SP+ predicts a 21 point Aggie victory, while the FEI has it closer to 17 points.
Let’s take a closer look.
Aggie Offense vs Gamecock Defense
The Aggies continued their streak of scoring 30+ points on SEC opponents this past week, further cementing their status as one of the top offenses in the country. Clinically efficient in the same way they were at their best under previous head coaches, but with an explosiveness in the passing game that feels different from anything fielded in the last decade of Aggie Football. They’re good. The Auburn game feels like an anomaly more than anything else, and chances are they are going to get their shot to prove that against some great defenses in the next month or so.
The South Carolina defense may not be one of those great ones, but they’ve been pretty good, especially given the fact that they’ve been on the field a lot this season. They are very much a bend-don’t-break squad that does a great job of keeping the ball in front of them and limiting big plays. The Front 7 took a step back from last year’s dominant group that brought chaos to backfields on every snap, but they’re still a solid front despite the turnover in the offseason. The secondary has definitely been a weak point for the Gamecocks, despite bringing back a good chunk of last year’s production. They don’t do a good job of forcing teams into passing downs (100th in the country), and are 85th in the country in Red Zone defense. Overall, a quality SEC defense that has begun to fall apart down the stretch, giving up more and more points each week as the quality of the opponent increases.
Aggie Defense vs Gamecock Offense
It’s been nine games into the season, so I guess it’s safe to call this Aggie Defense what it is. It’s very good, close to elite at times, with a much improved secondary from last year and far better at getting pressure on the QB. And in general, the defensive line is as good or better than it was in 2024 when it featured 3 guys taken in the first 2 rounds of the draft. But as a whole, that Front 7 has a tendency to lose containment, and frequently gives up big runs to offenses that are built to take advantage of that weakness. On top of that, the Aggie defense does a really good job of stopping teams before they get past midfield, but if they get into scoring position, they rarely are able to turn teams away empty handed ranking 133rd in Points/Opportunity and 133rd in Red Zone Scoring Defense.
The bad news is that explosive runs are one of the few things this South Carolina offense does well. That’s thanks in part to having a big, physical dual-threat QB like Sellers, who was Hell on Earth for the Aggies last year in Columbia. The good news is, there really is nothing else that the Gamecocks have done well thus far. Their rebuilt OL has never meshed, leading to a poor run game and an inability to protect Sellers and Nyck Harbor remains the only true receiving threat in the bunch. It’s just a mess, exactly what you’d expect from an offense that has scored 10, 7, 22, and 14 points in their last 4 games.
So What’s the Verdict?
Last year I felt good about the Aggies ability to go on the road and come back with a win. We all know what happened, the defense fell apart and the offense crumbled after the Moss injury. Are things different this year? Let’s start with the obvious: This is not last year’s offense. It is in fact, statistically speaking, better than any offense the Aggies have fielded in over 10 years, and that’s with Moss being injured for another large chunk of this season. Pair that with the fact that the South Carolina Defense is a (mostly) worse version of last years, and I feel okay about the Ags being able to move the ball well.
It’s trickier on defense. The Gamecocks have absolutely been a shadow of last year’s group that ended the season averaging 35 points against their last 4 SEC opponents. But it’s hard to shake the fear that comes from rooting for a team that struggles with containing explosive runs. It’s going to be a problem all season, so the only thing I will say is, if a defense is going to have a weakness, I want it to be that one. Look no further than last week for example, to see what it looks like when a team is unable to throw the ball efficiently and can only rely on occasionally breaking off big runs to survive. It’s just not a sustainable way for an offense to survive, a team that doesn’t throw the ball well against the Aggies talented secondary is going to really struggle to win, let alone keep it close if Marcel Reed and company are clicking.
My Prediction: I really like the Aggies to win big at home here. I’m going to say 35-14, but it would not surprise me in the least if the offense doesn’t break the 40 point mark this time around.
Final Notes
Thanks for reading this week. We’ll be off next week while the Aggies hopefully handle business against an FCS squad, and be back the week of Thanksgiving to talk burnt orange. Until then, check out these other sites if you’re interested.
- Bcftoys.com for Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other fun projects from him.
- ESPN.com is the home for all of Bill Connelly’s SP+ info (as well as the FPI rankings). You’ll need to subscribe to ESPN+ for most of his stuff these days.
- CollegeFootballData.com is a great site for data and charts that you can download and play with on your own time, in case Fun With Numbers isn’t filling that statistical void in your life. Most of my data comes from here.
- And finally my blog can be found here, in case you’re not getting enough of my writing.
