Many factors have contributed to the strong start, but what have we actually learned that we didn’t already expect entering the season?
Pitching
The Rays entered the season with a much stronger pitching outlook than they had in 2025 thanks to the additions of Martinez and Matz, along with the return to the pitcher-friendly Trop. McClanahan’s return from injury has also gone about as well as the organization could have hoped – especially when considering he hasn’t pitched in a Major League game since 2023.
Rasmussen continues to be as reliable as they come, and Jax’s much-anticipated transition to the rotation has gone well so far. Pepiot’s injury was surprising and disappointing, but the depth has held up and we haven’t really learned anything new about the rotation.
We also knew the bullpen had plenty depth, and that depth has already been tested with Uceta and Wilson on the 60-day IL to begin the season. IL stints from Cleavinger and now Sulser have further tested that depth. Despite those injury concerns, the bullpen has performed relatively well. They’re roughly league average in earned runs per batter faced — a useful bullpen metric because it accounts for workload — and middle of the pack in save-plus-hold conversion rate. Ben Williamson (a position player who has pitched 1 inning), Yoendrys Gomez, Chase Solesky, and Aaron Brooks have combined for a 7.48 ERA in 21.2 IP this season and are skewing the bullpen performance quite a bit.
One thing we’ve learned: the Rays have a closer, and his name is Bryan Baker. All offseason the idea was there would be a “closer by committee” approach, but that hasn’t happened, although Cash will use Baker to pitch the eighth inning if that’s when the heart of the opposing lineup is batting. There are still four relievers with multiple saves and I expect that to continue to some extent, but Baker has made the most of the opportunity given to him.
Position Players
We knew the catching group would be better on both sides of the ball compared to 2025. It has been a bit of a surprise to see Nick Fortes get so much playing time – he has appeared in 42 of the team’s 51 games so far while Feduccia has played in 29. The Rays currently have the 12th best wRC+ from their catching group and are 3rd in framing strike rate. The duo we have right now is looking good, and Dom Keegan could see some reps in the majors at some point later in the summer.
The infield (plus DH) is still the strongest group of players on this team. Aranda, Caminero, and Yandy lead the way while Williamson and Palacios have made solid contributions so far. Taylor Walls surprised everyone with a quick return from an early IL stint, and it was good timing too as the game appeared to be a little too quick for Carson Williams. The infield has converted ground balls into outs at roughly a league-average rate, but I expect that to improve a bit as Caminero continues to find his groove defensively and Williamson gets more comfortable with his transition to second base.
The outfield has been better, but that was expected. The improvement has been driven by a shift towards more plate discipline and contact profiles on the offensive side while year-over-year improvements from Cedric Mullins and Chandler Simpson have helped make this unit one of the better defensive groups in the league. The Rays convert fly balls and line drives into outs 61.8% of the time – the third highest rate in the league and well above the average of 57.7%. Unsurprisingly to some, Ryan Vilade has been impactful on both sides of the ball with his 140 wRC+ and three defensive runs saved in the outfield.
The main thing we’ve learned is that the new Rays offense works. The run environment is different than it was a few years ago, and the Rays have put together an offense that is built for it. I expected them to be a playoff team, but I didn’t expect a 108-win pace. This pace is unlikely to hold for any club over a full season, but this looks like a legitimate playoff team. It’ll be interesting to see how aggressively the Rays approach the deadline as they try to improve the roster while also managing the coming Rule 5 crunch.
