The New York Mets (75-65) continue their ten-game road trip with a crucial three-game set against the Cincinnati Reds (70-70). On August 24, the Reds narrowed the Mets’ lead in the Wild Card to a half-game and this series felt like it would have serious implications on the playoff race. Since then, Cincinnati has fallen on hard times and dropped five games back of New York. With a strong showing this weekend, the Mets could all but end the Reds’ playoff hopes. The Mets dropped two of three at Citi
Field in July, which also means this series can determine the team that holds the tiebreaker.
The Mets bounced back from an unacceptable series loss against the Marlins by taking two of three from the AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers. The Mets put on an offensive show in the first two games, kicking things off with a 10-8 victory on Labor Day. Juan Soto knocked in six runs, including a grand slam to put the Mets ahead 6-3—it was his first home run this year with more than one runner on base. Luis Torrens also had a great game, contributing three hits and driving in two as Francisco Alvarez continues rehabbing. The offense lifted up Sean Manaea, who had another rough outing.
The Mets’ offense erupted on Tuesday, resulting in a 12-5 shellacking of Detroit. The Mets rode a five-run fourth and a six-run seventh the victory after falling behind 2-1 in the first inning. The Mets hit four home runs, including a three-run blast from Torrens off the right field foul pole, a solo home run from Soto, and two dingers from Pete Alonso. Nolan McLean earned his fourth win in as many career starts as he continued wracking up ridiculous numbers early on in his blossoming career.
The good times came to an end as they fell 6-2 and were denied a sweep. Alonso drove home the first run on a double to tie up the game, but the Tigers went ahead on a two-run single off Gregory Soto. Mark Vientos drove home a run to make it 3-2, but the offense would be stymied from there and couldn’t break through against the Tigers’ bullpen. It was a tight contest until Ryan Helsley surrendered a three-run home run to put the game away.
The Mets’ recent stretch of baseball has been a breath of fresh air for a team that has been in search of the big hit for much of the season. The Mets, who struggled for much of the year with runners in scoring position, have exploded in that department since August 12. In that span, they’ve posted the best batting average with RISP by a pretty healthy margin, slashing .377/.444/.688 in those instances, including 14 home runs in 215 at-bats. In addition to leading the world in each of those categories, they’ve posted an MLB-best 208 wRC+, over 50 points higher than the next-closest team (the Blue Jays). For comparison, through the All-Star break, the Mets were 17th in baseball with a 99 wRC+ with RISP while hitting .230/.323/.407 in those occurrences, with 28 home runs in 771 at-bats. Their .230 batting average with RISP through the break was 27th in baseball.
Perhaps nowhere is this change more evident than with Juan Soto, who struggled mightily early on in the year in clutch positions while excelling in lower leverage situations. Through August 11, Soto was slashing .190/.336/.360 in 100 at-bats with RISP while posting a meager 78 wRC+. Since August 12, he’s hitting .429/.606/.952 (that’s a 1.558 OPS!) in 21 at-bats with RISP. He owns a 298 wRC+ since August 12 with RISP. If these trends continue, the Mets will be in good shape, but they also need the pitching to come around (that’s an entirely different story).
The Reds lost a game of ground in the Wild Card race as they dropped two of three to the Blue Jays earlier this week. They would have gotten swept if not for a three-run ninth on Labor Day, punctuated by a Noelvi Marte walk-off, two-run single. With the Giants sweeping the Rockies, Cincinnati has now fallen behind San Francisco in the Wild Card race, and currently find themselves five games back of the Mets and six back of the Padres.
Speaking of Marte, he’s been one of the bright spots for Cincinnati this year. He leads the club with a 127 wRC+, a .292 batting average, and an .844 OPS. He is currently third on the squad with a 1.7 fWAR despite playing half the amount of games as the team’s leader, Elly De La Cruz. Cruz, meanwhile, is slashing .269/.338/.449 on the year while leading the Reds with 19 home runs, 95 runs scored, 78 runs batted in, and 32 stolen bases. His wRC+ sits at 110 on the season.
Friday, September 5: David Peterson vs. Andrew Abbott, 6:40 PM EDT on SNY
Peterson (2025): 152.0 IP, 136 K, 58 BB, 9 HR, 3.61 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 88 ERA-
After a couple of strong starts, Peterson endured his worst start of the season, and one of the worst of his major league careers last Saturday against the Marlins. The lefty lasted a season-low two innings while being tagged for a season-high eight earned runs on eight hits. After punching out 18 batters over his last two starts, he struck out just one while walking three. It was an all-around dud for Peterson, and the team will hope it was a small blip in the radar and not a more troubling sign, given the struggles of the rest of the established part of their rotation.
Abbott (2025): 139.0 IP, 125 K, 39 BB, 15 HR, 2.65 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 60 ERA-
Abbott is having a terrific year, and the lefty was named to the NL All-Star team for the first time in his three-year career. Abbott is currently tied for fourth among qualified NL starters with a 5.0 bWAR while also owning the third-best ERA (2.65) and seventh-best WHIP (1.11). However, he is coming off a pretty rough August, as he pitched to a 4.45 ERA over 30 1/3 innings, and the team lost every one of his starts. His last time out, he allowed two earned runs over five innings, with three hits, four walks, and seven strikeouts in the loss to the Cardinals. Prior to that, he was tattooed for seven runs (six earned) on eight hits over in four innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks.
Saturday, September 6: Jonah Tong vs. Brady Singer, 6:40 PM EDT on SNY
Tong (2025): 5.0 IP, 6 K, 0 BB, 0 HR, 1.80 ERA, 0.73 FIP, 44 ERA-
Tong is coming off a successful first major league outing, as he navigated some rough defense to pick up his first career win. He did allow four runs, but only one was earned thanks to back-to-back errors from Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso. He was the beneficiary of an offense outburst that resulted in 19 runs for New York, and Carlos Mendoza let him stick around for five innings despite the high pitch count to earn the victory. He struck out six and did not walk a batter.
Singer (2025): 143.1 IP, 140 K, 52 BB, 14 HR, 4.08 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 92 ERA-
Singer is enjoying a really good year, and he’s in one of his best stretches of the season. Since July 27 (seven starts), he has pitched to a 2.20 ERA, a 2.50 FIP, and a 0.93 WHIP in 41 innings, with opposing batters hitting .193 against him. He has earned five wins in those outings and has pitched at least six innings in six of those starts, lasting into the seventh in three of them. His last time out, he allowed three earned runs on five hits over six innings in a win over the Cardinals.
Sunday, September 7: Brandon Sproat vs. TBD, 1:40 PM EDT on WPIX
Sproat (Triple-A): 121.0 IP, 113 K, 53 BB, 9 HR, 4.24 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 88 ERA-
Sproat is the latest Mets pitching prospect to get the call during a playoff race. The hard-throwing righty has really put it together as of late, posting a 2.44 ERA over his last ten starts, with 70 strikeouts across 59 innings since June 28. It was only a matter of time for Sproat, who follows Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong up from the minors, and he will likely be sandwiched between Tong and McLean pitching during the week. All McLean and Tong have done since coming to the Mets is go a perfect 5-0 and become fan favorites. No pressure at all, kid.
TBD
The Reds have not named a starting pitcher for Sunday’s series finale against the Mets.
