Jalen Green Breakout SZN?
Shooting Guard, 6’4”, 178 pounds, 23 years old, 4 years of NBA experience
The Phoenix Suns need Jalen Green to make a leap this season. With Kevin Durant traded and Bradley Beal off the team, Green enters Phoenix with a heavy burden on his shoulders and big shoes to fill. The Suns did not trade for a veteran scorer to paper over weaknesses. They added Jalen Green, a young bucket-getter with a high ceiling and a lot to prove. This is a clean break into a new chapter for Green and for Phoenix.
The question
isn’t whether he can score. He can. It is whether he can turn that scoring into consistency, fit the team context, and form a sustained partnership alongside Devin Booker. He has star potential, but the question is if he’ll be able to put it all together.
He was the headliner of the Kevin Durant trade, but many question his long-term fit next to Booker in Phoenix. How will he answer the skeptics? Does he end up a rental that they flip, or is he a cornerstone for the future? We’ll find out a lot this season about the future and direction of the Phoenix Suns, depending on how the Green era goes.
2024-25 Recap
Last season was a mixed bag for the former second overall pick. There was progress, no doubt. But some of the concerns loomed large, especially come playoff time for the 23-year-old. Green finished the 2024–25 regular season at 21.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game while playing all 82 games and averaging 32.9 minutes. I think it’s worth highlighting that he played in all 82 games in consecutive seasons.
He shot 42.3 percent from the floor, 35.4 percent from three, and 81.3 percent from the free-throw line.
His playoff run left a lot to be desired in a vacuum, but he also had a 38-point outburst in Game 2, showcasing his raw upside.
“In Houston, he was both a promise and a puzzle. He was the leading scorer on a two-seed, yet doing so on volume over efficiency.“
Green was the No. 2 overall pick in 2021 after coming through the G League Ignite program. Each year, he has shown gradual improvement, but there hasn’t really been that “aha” moment for him where he makes the big leap all at once. Yet.
Contract Details
Jalen Green signed a 3-year, $105 million contract with the Houston Rockets, with an average annual salary of $35,111,111. In 2025-26, Green will earn a base salary of $33,333,333, while carrying a cap hit of $33,584,499 and a dead cap value of $33,333,333.
(courtesy of Spotrac)
Strengths & Weaknesses
Jalen Green is an athletic freak with the ability to effortlessly lift off and finish around (or through) contact at the rim. He has an off-the-dribble game and can attack downhill when he’s at his best.
Green poured in 38 points, drilling eight three-pointers, and recorded six assists in Game 2 against the Golden State Warriors to help the Houston Rockets even the series. That game wound up being an outlier, though, after Green struggled mightily in the rest of the series. He failed to score more than 12 points in the other five games, and in four of the seven, he scored single digits.
In attack mode, he is unstoppable. He is comfortable hunting his shot in transition and in pick-and-roll bursts. In games where he and Devin Booker are downhill and aggressive, the Suns will be a handful for opposing defenses.
Durability is another skill that the Suns could sure use more of. Yes, it is a skill. Green has now played in all 82 games in consecutive seasons, as we noted above. That is a rare and impressive feat in today’s NBA.
The progress we need to see includes increased volume in rim attacking, improved shot selection, and becoming a more impactful defender.
Defense is a work in progress. He has the tools. Wingspan. Athleticism. Quickness. But he is not yet a plus defender who can erase his offensive lapses. In a loaded Western Conference, defensive limitations get magnified. While most of the talk is about the offensive fit, Green and Booker will need to learn how to play off one another defensively as well.
Inconsistent rim pressure
For all of Green’s athleticism, he ranked in the middle of the league on “drives per 36 minutes” last season, which suggests he is not yet an elite, relentless rim presser who forces constant contact and free throws the way some top wings do. His 11.5 drives per 36 ranked 68th among 375 players who played at least 500 minutes in 2024-25. That wasn’t far ahead of Beal, who ranked 75th at 11 drives per 36.
Shot selection swings. High-volume guys come with volatility. Green can be prone to taking ill-timed pull-ups and contested threes. This is something that his fellow former Rocket, Dillon Brooks, can struggle with as well. There have been times when those two shot Houston out of games.
The general weaknesses for Green are similar to the things we heard about Devin Booker when he was younger.
Empty calories. High-volume scorer. Doesn’t impact winning. Defensive liability. Poor shot selection. We’ve heard it all. Some of it is true, while some of it is subjective.
One Key Factor
The key factor to the Suns’ season will not solely be about how many points per game Jalen Green averages. It’s how he fits alongside Devin Booker, and if his weaknesses (listed above) improve. He’s a good bet for averaging 20+ ppg, but the question is, how will he get those 20 points? How does the defense look? Has the shot selection and playmaking improved?
I look at the playmaking specifically, due to the increased role he’ll take on in that department since Phoenix only has one true point guard on its roster.
Holden added this in his piece in Devin Booker’s preview, and it’s worth adding it in here as well.
Prediction Time
I think Green will have a strong season. Stronger than the skeptics believe, and he fits better next to Booker than you’d think on the surface. That being said, I’m still not sold on the defense and ability to build a title contender with those two are your primary options. That leaves the Suns with a decision to make, especially with that much money committed to the guard duo.
Let’s roll with him playing in all 82 games again, because why put anything else into the universe?
Stat Prediction: 82 games played, 23.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 4.4 RPG, 0.9 SPG on 44/36/79 shooting splits.
Final Thoughts
If Phoenix leans into a two-guard system with staggered screens, early rim runs from Mark Williams, catch-and-shoot reps for Green, and clear isolation lanes for Booker late, this can work. If minutes are jammed into the same half-court moments with no structural spacing or play design, both will step on each other’s toes, and efficiency will crater.
The Suns’ coaching staff must choreograph, not tolerate, the pairing. If the Suns do more damage than expected this season, it’s very likely due to Jalen Green breaking out. Let’s hope that is the case.
