By Paolo Laudani
June 30 (Reuters) - As Paraguay's Fabian Balbuena found out the hard way, being substituted on just to take a penalty in a looming shootout is generally a sure sign that you'll miss.
The 34-year-old centre-back, currently at Brazilian club Gremio, came on in the 122nd minute of Paraguay's last-32 World Cup eliminator against Germany, at the end of extra time, with the teams drawing 1-1 and a shootout imminent.
Taking Paraguay's fifth penalty, with the scores tied, he had the chance
to clinch victory. But Germany goalkeeper Manuel Neuer guessed correctly and parried his shot - and perhaps no one should have been surprised.
It was Balbuena's fellow defender Jose Canale, on since the start, who eventually held his nerve to end German hopes.
According to data analysts Opta, eight of the last 10 players to be subbed on after the 115th minute at the European Championship or World Cup have missed their penalty in the shootout that followed.
Coming in physically fresh while others have played for more than two hours should be a help. But the mental pressure of kicking a penalty can weigh especially heavy on a player who has only one job.
German fans were hoping for an outcome similar to the one that saw them win their Euro 2016 quarter-final. Italy's Simone Zaza was subbed on for the shootout and ended up missing.
And hours after Germany were eliminated on Monday, Dutch forward Justin Kluivert was brought on in the 113th minute of their last-32 match against Morocco.
He missed the Netherlands' second penalty - one of three Dutch players to miss - and Morocco won.
Paraguay at least made it to the last 16 despite Balbuena's miss, and will now face the winner of the game between France and Sweden.
"As always, we don't do things without suffering," said Paraguay's coach, Gustavo Alfaro.
(Reporting by Paolo Laudani; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
