By Philip O'Connor
VANCOUVER, CANADA, June 21 (Reuters) - Norway coach Stale Solbakken is taking a skeptical view of a mathematical model that put his team's World Cup knockout round chances at a near-certain 99 percent following their emphatic 4-1 opening win over Iraq.
The Norwegian Computing Centre, an independent non-profit research foundation, has carried out 100,000 simulations and updates the prognosis every 10 minutes on its website.
Yet Solbakken believes his side still needs at least a draw
against Senegal or France in their last two matches to guarantee progression.
"I think we should think that we need to take one more point to be absolutely sure of progressing. I think the Norwegian Computing Centre is calculating the wrong way, it could be a huge blow (if the calculation is wrong)," the 58-year-old told reporters.
The foundation said that its calculations, carried out by Torstein Maeland Fjeldstad and Alexander Johan Arntzen, are based on "almost 30 years of football statistics, data going back to the mid-1990s and modern statistical models."
"Our model considers Norway to be a very good team and has been positively surprised by the 4-1 victory over Iraq. It also has an impact on teams in other groups that are pushed down," Fjeldstad, a senior researcher, told newspaper Verdens Gang.
"The forecast can go up and down as more matches are played in the group stage," he added.
Solbakken, who played for Norway the last time they made the World Cup finals in 1998 where they were knocked out in the last 16 by Italy, may have good reason for caution.
Neighbours Sweden got off to a similar flying start with a 5-1 win over Tunisia, but were brought crashing back to earth on Saturday as they lost to the Netherlands by the same scoreline, and now sit third in their group behind Japan and the Dutch.
Researcher Fjeldstad explained that the 99 percent figure was only a prognosis.
"It is important to note that if we say that Norway is going to advance, we are also 'wrong' 22 percent of the time," he told the foundation's website.
Norway play Senegal in their second game on Monday before finishing their Group I campaign against France on June 26.
(Reporting by Philip O'ConnorEditing by Toby Davis)
