By Angelica Medina
March 11 (Reuters) - Negotiations between the WNBA and its players' union stretched past 5 am ET on Wednesday with no deal in sight, and a leading sports business expert said the league was now dangerously close to uncharted territory.
"We are on the verge of a lockout," Dr. Daniel G. Kelly II, Associate Dean and Clinical Professor at NYU's Preston Robert Tisch Institute for Global Sport, told Reuters.
"No one wins with a strike, it's a zero-sum game. With a 44-game season, you really
can't afford to have too long a ... stoppage."
The two sides have been negotiating since players opted out of the previous CBA in October 2024 and the March 10 deadline was the latest in a series of missed targets.
At the heart of the dispute is a fundamental disagreement over how revenue is defined and divided. The WNBA is offering players a share of net revenue, while the players' association is pushing for gross — a distinction Kelly says is critical.
"Gross revenue means dollar for dollar. The cleanest method is to go by the gross because right away you see the money coming in from the media deal, licensing, game days," he said.
Net revenue, by contrast, opens the door to deductions. "When we start getting into net, we get into depreciation, amortization, interest, taxes — that's when creative accounting measures can be used. The WNBA doesn't really want to share their books, so net revenue becomes a disadvantage for the players."
Kelly also pointed to expansion fees as an emerging flashpoint. With new franchises valued at $250 million apiece, the players want a cut — something no other major professional league has ever offered.
"The WNBA is saying that everything should be on the table if you don't want to give us the exact deal you're giving to the other leagues," Kelly said. "If you count what's on the table versus precedent from other leagues, we're in a pretty peculiar situation — because both sides are making great arguments."
'STRIKING WHILE THE IRON IS HOT'
Despite the tension, Kelly was careful to note how far the league has already come. "To even get a net revenue share is groundbreaking. No other women's league has a revenue share like this. They've already won."
The players' leverage, he argued, extends well beyond any one name — from Caitlin Clark to Paige Bueckers, Angel Reese, A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart. "Right now it's almost striking while the iron is hot," Kelly said. "The next time this CBA comes around in five or 10 years, you'll be in a different position."
A 98% strike authorization vote suggested a united front, but a private letter obtained by ESPN on March 3 — signed by only two of the seven WNBPA executive committee members, Breanna Stewart and Kelsey Plum — raised questions about player unity.
"That shows it's not a fully unified front," Kelly said. "In order to get the deal done, they must be on the same page."
The business consequences are already cascading. The expansion draft, free agency and opening day are all now at risk. Two new franchises, the Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire, cannot even begin building their rosters until a deal is signed.
However, Kelly, a 20-year veteran of the sports industry, struck a measured note of optimism.
"This is the natural course of a negotiation. It's supposed to get to this point, but cooler heads should prevail and get a deal done."
(Reporting by Angelica Medina in Mexico City, editing by Pritha Sarkar)
