By Martin Petty
SANTA CLARA, California, June 25 (Reuters) - The 2026 World Cup is already setting sports gambling records before the knockout stage has even begun, with an increased number of teams and market-favourable kickoff times raising industry expectations that it could become the all-time biggest betting event.
The expanded 48-nation, 104-match World Cup is set to far surpass betting volumes of the 2022 tournament in Qatar, according to some industry leaders and experts, helped by more regulated
gambling, deeper product offerings and the scale of the business in co-host the United States.
Flutter Entertainment, whose brands include FanDuel, Paddy Power, Betfair, Sisal, Sportsbet and Sky Bet, said that, beyond the U.S., the larger tournament meant greater engagement in markets where it has a strong presence, including Britain, Spain, Brazil, Australia and Canada.
"We're expecting the World Cup to be the biggest betting event of all time given the extended format as well as the benefit of it being partly hosted in our key market, the U.S.," a Flutter spokesperson said.
The world's largest online betting company expects to have around 10 million customers across its different platforms and to manage 100,000 bets per minute globally at peak World Cup moments.
"Overall, we expect staking to be at least double what we experienced in Qatar."
BRAZIL, US OPENERS SET RECORDS
Macquarie forecasts total World Cup wagers above $50 billion globally, beating the $35 billion for the 2022 edition. A key driver of the increase is the changing regulatory landscape in the U.S., where access to legal betting has risen to 65% of the population from around 40% in 2022.
Reuters contacted some of the world's biggest sports betting firms, collectively representing dozens of platforms, for their insights on trends during the first week of the World Cup.
The opening matches for the United States and Brazil were FanDuel's top two soccer matches ever in terms of active customers, while the same two matches were the biggest events in its Sportsbook history for U.S. giant DraftKings, for both handle and active customers.
Handle is the total amount wagered by bettors, while active customers are those with registered accounts.
Greg Karamitis, executive vice president and general manager for sports at DraftKings, said it had already seen "tremendous engagement" and a huge volume jump compared to the early stages of the Qatar World Cup.
"We've seen a 3x increase in first-time predictions customers and an increase of 87% in predictions trading volume since the start of the tournament," Karamitis said.
"On the Sportsbook side, we've seen a 5x increase in handle compared to the 2022 World Cup."
Deutsche Bank has a base projection of $3.3 billion for the World Cup handle in the U.S., led by FanDuel and DraftKings, nearly double projected figures for this year's Super Bowl.
ENGAGEMENT SOARS, BUT FINANCIAL IMPACT UNCERTAIN
Entain Group, which counts Ladbrokes, Coral, BetMGM, Sportingbet, bwin and Sports Interaction among its brands, said match times and location were crucial factors for betting firms and it was benefiting from its U.S. and Brazil presence, though its CEO Stella David earlier this year anticipated a "rollercoaster ride" early on from increased teams and high-scoring, lopsided games.
Entain said it was too early to gauge performance, with a few surprising outcomes such as Spain's goalless draw with Cape Verde offset by comprehensive wins for big teams and goals for Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland.
But a challenge for betting firms will be turning the World Cup excitement into longer-term engagement.
Some firms have made wider and more favourable offers to entice punters, including big boosts on odds and allowing bets placed on certain players to transfer to their replacement if they are substituted.
Britain's bet365 said it had paid out £30 million ($39.5 million) in the first 11 days of the World Cup from substitutions that included Crysencio Summerville scoring and assisting for Netherlands against Sweden and Marcus Rashford coming on to score for England against Croatia.
William Hill, also UK-based, said it had made a six-figure payout from Messi's first goal and a seven-figure payout in an eight-minute period to customers who backed co-hosts Mexico to score first in the fiery World Cup opener against South Africa.
Its in-play, player cards proved popular in that game, when three reds were given.
England's 4-2 win over Croatia was William Hill's largest betting event to date, with the opening games for Mexico, Brazil and France the other most popular betting matches.
"We've been encouraged by the level of engagement. We are over 20% ahead of where we predicted to be after the first round of fixtures," its spokesperson Lee Phelps said, adding that not all kickoff times were favourable for bettors in the UK.
The 39-day World Cup is primarily an opportunity for companies to bring in new customers rather than a near-term revenue driver, said Macquarie.
"The ultimate financial impact will depend on converting these players into repeat, multi-sport bettors," it said.
(Reporting by Martin Petty; Editing by Rosalba O'Brien)
