By Nicholas P. Brown
NEW YORK, June 23 (Reuters) - World Cup attendances are on track for record highs despite daunting ticket prices and Trump administration travel restrictions. Experts say it is less a reflection of America's fondness for soccer, and more a measure of its love of spectacle.
Through 44 matches, total attendance topped 2.85 million, with the average stadium about 99.6% full, according to a Reuters analysis based on FIFA data. "Americans like big events," said Dan Rascher, a sports
economics expert at the University of San Francisco. "They want to be there for the big moments."
While this year's World Cup is bigger than its predecessors -- totalling 104 matches, up from 64 -- attendance is on pace to break the all-time record well before this year's 64th game. The existing mark of roughly 3.5 million spectators was set in 1994, the last time the U.S. hosted.
"Part of it is that we have these gigantic stadiums," said Victor Matheson, an economist and sports business expert at the College of the Holy Cross.
But stadiums in 2026 are also fuller, on a percentage basis, than nearly any World Cup this century, with the possible exception of Germany's in 2006, according to FIFA annual reports and a Reuters attendance analysis.
HIGH PRICES? NO PROBLEM
It shows Americans don't like missing out on global spectacles, experts say.
Soccer is not as popular in the U.S. as in other recent host nations, like Brazil and Germany, and ticket prices have never been higher. FIFA for the first time adopted a dynamic pricing model, changing prices based on demand. A last-minute ticket to Thursday's match between Paraguay and Australia, for example, cost $450.
The secondary market has been even steeper. TicketData, which tracks resale prices, reported average "get-in" rates of $798 -- the cheapest resale ticket available for a given match.
FIFA has faced criticism for the pricing strategy, as well as for its decision last December to award a peace prize to U.S. President Donald Trump, an immigration hawk whose travel restrictions have hindered the ability of Haitians, Iranians, Senegalese and others to travel to the U.S. for the tournament.
If fans harbour resentment, it has not kept them home. "The American consumer is willing to pay for what they perceive to be a premium sporting event," said John Grady, a sport management professor at the University of South Carolina.
SPLURGE WHEN IT MATTERS
That traces a broader trend: Americans have not stopped splurging on glamorous items, despite stubbornly low consumer sentiment, but they are being "more intentional" about big purchases, researchers at Nielsen IQ said in a May report, increasingly offsetting them with cheaper purchases on everyday goods.
It's not so much soccer that Americans love, but top-shelf products writ large. "Americans want the best, and the World Cup is the cream of the crop," said Rascher.
More Americans watch Mexico's Liga MX - seen as boasting high levels of talent -- than the U.S.' own domestic soccer league, Major League Soccer, according to a June report by Nielsen. "We always think the World Cup will lead to a boost in MLS ratings, but so far, it hasn't," Rascher said.
Individual athletes with global star power, like Argentina's Lionel Messi and France's Kylian Mbappe, can draw thousands of fans by themselves, added Grady -- a relatively recent phenomenon in the influencer era.
FIFA, which did not respond to a request for comment, has forecast more than $3 billion in revenue from ticket sales and hospitality rights, and experts say that may be conservative. Matheson reckons the number could climb as high as $4 billion. That compares with about $949 million in 2022, and $712 million in 2018, according to FIFA annual reports.
IMMIGRATION IN FOCUS
Some observers say it is fair to wonder if fan engagement could have been even stronger - particularly at parallel events like FIFA fan festivals - if not for Trump's travel restrictions, and bubbling anti-American sentiment overseas.
International tourism to the U.S. fell 5.7% last year due in part to "sentiment and policy headwinds," consulting firm Oxford Economics reported in January, and World Cup tourism was initially slow to materialise.
"Under a different administration, we almost certainly would’ve had more international interest in coming," said Matheson.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
FIFA fan festivals - giant watch parties with food, entertainment and merchandise sales - amassed 7.7 million visits during the 2018 World Cup in Russia, and 5.5 million in 2014 in Brazil, according to FIFA. This year's festivals have performed strongly.
Companies and cities are hosting their own, parallel events. Walmart's so-called Kickoff event in Dallas on June 20 drew some 800 fans, a spokesperson said. Goya is sponsoring what it calls Flag Cities events, with food trucks and live music. San Jose and its MLS soccer squad, the Earthquakes, have staged an ongoing watch party that operates daily through the tournament.
It could bode well for the U.S.' next big sports bonanza -- the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.
The World Cup has been "a nice precursor," Grady said. "It shows global fans the United States can throw a good party."
(Reporting by Nicholas P. Brown, editing by Ed Osmond)
