An India-Pakistan semi-final at the T20 World Cup 2026 is now virtually off the table - and the latest results have only reinforced that reality.
Pakistan
national cricket team's two-wicket defeat to England cricket team in Pallekele has reshaped the Super Eight bracket. A 51-ball 100 from Harry Brook powered England to a 165-run chase in 19.1 overs, lifting them to four points from two matches in Group 2 and sealing their semi-final qualification. Pakistan, meanwhile, remain on one point from two games, with a negative net run-rate of -0.461.
The result has severely dented Pakistan's semi-final hopes - and with it, ended the realistic prospect of an India-Pakistan last-four showdown.
Bracket math rules out a semi-final
Under the tournament's cross-over format, the winner of Group 1 faces the runner-up of Group 2 in Semi-final 1, while the winner of Group 2 meets the runner-up of Group 1 in Semi-final 2.
With England already confirmed as Group 2 winners, Pakistan - even in their best-case scenario - can only finish second in the group if results fall their way. India, navigating their own recovery in Group 1, are similarly positioned to fight for second place rather than top the table.
That alignment places both sides on the same half of the bracket. In simple terms: even if both qualify, they cannot meet in the semi-finals.
Earlier tournament provisions - agreed under the 'Hybrid Model' between the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) and the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) - mandate that any India-Pakistan knockout clash be played at a neutral venue, specifically the R. Premadasa Stadium. But given the current standings, that clause is unlikely to be activated at the semi-final stage.
Wankhede on course for India
If India national cricket team qualify, they remain scheduled to play the second semi-final at the Wankhede Stadium on March 5 - provided Pakistan do not emerge as their direct opponent.
For Pakistan, the equation is now precarious. They face Sri Lanka on February 28 and must win to reach three points. Even then, qualification would depend on net run-rate swings and results in England's final group match against New Zealand. England currently top Group 2 with a net run-rate of +1.491, followed by New Zealand (1 point), Pakistan (1 point) and Sri Lanka (0 points).
In practical terms, Pakistan's path requires both victory and favourable permutations. Even that may not suffice.
The only remaining route for an India-Pakistan meeting now lies in the final. For that to happen, both teams would need to navigate separate semi-finals on opposite sides of the draw.
For now, one conclusion stands: the semi-final shuffle has effectively cleared the way for Mumbai to host India - and ended hopes of a last-four clash between cricket's most combustible rivals.
