The Premier League 2025-26 season kicks off on August 15, 2025, with defending champions Liverpool facing Bournemouth at Anfield.
After a dominant 2024-25
campaign, Liverpool are favorites to retain their title, but Arsenal and Manchester City are hot on their heels. This article dives into data-driven predictions, key transfers, and statistical insights to forecast who will lift the Premier League trophy in May 2026.
Key Contenders for the 2025-26 Premier League Title
Liverpool
Favorites to Defend Their Crown Last Season's Performance: Liverpool secured the 2024-25 title with 84 points, boasting a +45 goal differential and an impressive 0.179 xG per shot (second in the league).
Key Signings: The Reds invested heavily, bringing in Florian Wirtz (€125m), Hugo Ekitike (€80m), Milos Kerkez (€46.9m), and Jeremie Frimpong (€40m). These additions bolster an already potent attack led by Mohamed Salah, who recorded 29 goals and 18 assists last season.
Strengths: Liverpool's improved shot quality and defensive solidity under Arne Slot make them formidable. However, the loss of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Luis DÍaz could strain their defense.
Prediction: Spreadex forecasts Liverpool to finish with 77.5-79.5 points, giving them a slight edge in a tight race.
Arsenal
Ready to End Their Drought? Last Season's Performance: Arsenal finished second with 74 points and a +35 goal differential. Their elite defense allowed just 63 goals over two seasons, the best in the league.
Key Signings: Viktor Gyökeres (€65.8m), MartÍn Zubimendi (€70m), and Noni Madueke (€56m) address Arsenal's need for attacking firepower and midfield depth.
Challenges: Arsenal struggled to create high-quality chances last season, dropping from 46 "great shots" (0.33+ xG) in 2023/24 to 36 in 2024/25. Gyökeres' arrival could boost their attack, but consistency is key.
Prediction: Analysts like Adrian Clarke and Ninad Barbadikar tip Arsenal to win the title, citing their deepened squad and Mikel Arteta's growth. Spreadex predicts 77-79 points, just behind Liverpool.
Manchester City
Can Guardiola Bounce Back? Last Season's Performance: City finished third with 71 points, hampered by Rodri's absence and a 30% increase in expected goals allowed.
Key Signings: Tijjani Reijnders (€55m), Rayan Cherki (€36.5m), and Rayan Ait-Nouri (€36.8m) aim to rejuvenate City's midfield and defense.
Key Stat: City's xG differential improves by 0.85 goals per 90 minutes with Rodri on the pitch, making his return in September critical.
Prediction: Experts like Alex Keble and Ben Bloom back City to reclaim the title, citing Pep Guardiola's unbeaten streak of never going two seasons without a league win. Spreadex projects 77-79 points.
Dark Horses to Watch
Chelsea
With a young squad (average age 24 years, 36 days in 2024/25) and signings like JoÃo Pedro (€63.7m) and Jamie Gittens (€56m), Chelsea could challenge for the top four or higher.
Aston Villa
Unai Emery's side, with a stable core and Boubacar Kamara's return, could push for a top-six finish. The Villans had a superb last season and can become a force this season as well.
