The Manchester derby is set to unfold at the Etihad Stadium, with both City and United eager for a crucial victory. City, aiming to rectify last season's
shortcomings, find themselves six points behind Liverpool after consecutive losses. Meanwhile, United secured their first win of the season against Burnley at Old Trafford, following an embarrassing EFL Cup exit to League Two's Grimsby Town.
City's season began promisingly with a 4-0 triumph over Wolves. However, subsequent defeats to Tottenham and Brighton have dampened spirits. This marks the first time since 2004-05 that City lost two of their initial three Premier League matches. Guardiola's team has only collected three points so far, the lowest in his first three games of any season.
Despite these setbacks, City remains a strong contender for the title with a 6.3% chance of winning according to Opta's supercomputer. Guardiola has experienced 49 losses in 345 Premier League matches, with 22% occurring since November last year. A loss in this derby could make him the second manager to reach 50 defeats in the fewest games.
United's recent win against Burnley provided some relief for Ruben Amorim amid a challenging start to the campaign. The Red Devils have won eight out of 30 Premier League matches under Amorim, with half of those victories against promoted teams. Against non-promoted sides, his win ratio stands at just 16%, though one notable victory was at the Etihad last December.
United's struggles are partly due to poor finishing, a recurring issue from previous seasons. They have taken 58 shots this season, more than any other team, yet scored only four times in the league. Their expected goals (xG) total is 6.8, indicating they have underperformed significantly.
Key Players to Watch
Erling Haaland is a standout player for City, having scored 88 goals in his first 100 Premier League appearances—nine more than any other player in that span. In City's match against Brighton before the international break, he led in shots and aerial duels and has netted 48 home goals in his last 49 home matches.
For United, Bruno Fernandes has been instrumental this season by creating the most chances overall (12) and in open play (eight). He scored United’s fourth-latest winning goal on record against Burnley and has been pivotal in their recent wins over City.
Derby Expectations
The Manchester derby promises excitement as both teams seek momentum early in the season. Historically, City has won five of their last eight league encounters with United but failed to secure victory in either meeting last season. Amorim bested Guardiola twice last term and managed a draw as well.
The Opta supercomputer predicts a home win for City with a probability of 65.6%. United aims for back-to-back wins at Etihad for the first time since March 2021 but holds only a 15.8% chance of success on Sunday. A draw seems slightly more probable at 18.6%.
New Signings' Impact
City hopes Gianluigi Donnarumma will bolster their squad after joining from Paris Saint-Germain on deadline day. James Trafford started City's first three games but committed an error leading to a goal. Donnarumma brings experience as one of Europe's top shot-stoppers since debuting for AC Milan in 2015-16.
United might also debut new goalkeeper Senne Lammens from Antwerp after Altay Bayindir replaced Andre Onana as number one but made an error against Arsenal on opening weekend. Lammens led Europe’s top leagues with saves last season and could strengthen United’s defence.
This derby is crucial for both teams seeking early-season momentum and morale boosts through victory over their city rivals.
