Manchester City face Chelsea at the Etihad Stadium in a crucial Women's Super League clash, with the leaders holding a nine-point advantage over the reigning champions after 13 matches and Opta data suggesting
a tight contest despite City's domestic dominance across the current campaign.
The Opta supercomputer gives City an 87% chance of lifting the Women's Super League trophy this season, compared with just 9% for Chelsea, yet individual match simulations are far closer, with City winning 37.7% of 10,000 runs, Chelsea victorious in 36%, and a draw occurring in 26.4% of scenarios.
Manchester City sit top after a run of 12 straight league wins, matching the joint-third longest winning streak in Women's Super League history, and only City between November 2023 and April 2024 plus Arsenal from March to November 2022, who both managed 14, have put together longer sequences in the competition.
A home victory would leave Andree Jeglertz's Manchester City 12 points clear of Chelsea and at least 11 points ahead of any other side, with the only previous instance of a lead greater than 10 points being Chelsea's 12-point cushion over Arsenal at the conclusion of last season, underlining how much this result may shape the title race.
City's attacking output has improved significantly this term, with 36 league goals at an average of 2.8 per game compared with 49 goals in 22 matches last season, or 2.2 per game, while defensive numbers are also better, with only 11 conceded at a rate of 0.8 per match, down from 28 conceded and 1.3 per game previously.
Chelsea's campaign has been more uneven, with six wins and one draw from the first seven league fixtures followed by only two victories in the next six matches, alongside two draws and two defeats, including a 2-0 loss to Arsenal last weekend, although the club still has not suffered successive league defeats since July 2015 against Sunderland and Manchester City.
Manchester City vs Chelsea Women's Super League key stats and history
Bompastor's team set a Women's Super League record earlier this season with a 34-match unbeaten league sequence, yet recent attacking struggles are clear, as Chelsea are underperforming expected goals by five this term, with 29.0 xG but only 24 goals scored, and against Arsenal produced 18 shots but registered just one effort on target.
Chelsea retain impressive away form, having gone ahead in each of the past 12 Women's Super League away matches, a run matched only by Manchester City between July 2016 and January 2018, and the Blues have lost just two of their last 92 away league matches when leading, both defeats coming against Liverpool in September 2022 and May 2024.
Bompastor is also chasing a personal milestone, as this fixture is Chelsea's 63rd under Bompastor across all competitions, with 49 wins so far alongside eight draws and five defeats, and victory would see a 50th success achieved in fewer matches than any Women's Super League manager except Joseph Montemurro, who reached 50 wins with Arsenal in 61 games.
Despite City's league position, the recent head-to-head picture favours Chelsea, as City have won only one of their last eight Women's Super League home fixtures against Chelsea, a 2-0 success in March 2023 under Gareth Taylor, while Chelsea have taken seven wins from the last eight meetings in all competitions, losing just once and already beating City twice this season.
| Category | Manchester City | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Title chance (Opta) | 87% | 9% |
| Pre-MD1 title chance | 15% | 72% |
| Goals scored 2025-26 WSL | 36 | 24 |
| Goals conceded 2025-26 WSL | 11 | 8 |
Those two Chelsea victories over Manchester City this season include a 1-0 success in the Women's League Cup semi-finals on January 21, and another win here would make Chelsea the first club to record four consecutive Women's Super League victories over City, further reinforcing the champions' reputation for chasing down leaders in decisive moments.
Manchester City vs Chelsea Women's Super League players to watch
Khadija Shaw leads Manchester City's threat, with 13 league goals already, exceeding last season's tally for the Golden Boot winners, when Shaw and Alessia Russo shared top scoring honours with 12 each, and Shaw has supplied the decisive goal in four of City's last six matches, giving Shaw 22 winning goals in the Women's Super League overall.
Shaw's total of 22 winning league goals leaves only team-mate Vivianne Miedema ahead on 28, with Sam Kerr next on 21, while Chelsea look to Kerolin for a similar influence, as the Brazilian has three goals and three assists across the last five Women's Super League appearances, despite starting only two of those games during that productive run.
Kerolin's output gives the Chelsea forward the best minutes-per-goal-involvement rate in the 2025-26 Women's Super League, averaging one contribution every 53 minutes, and that cutting edge could be crucial against a Manchester City outfit that leads the division in scoring, while Chelsea rely on the league's strongest defence, having conceded eight times from 12.8 expected goals against and kept six clean sheets.
The wider picture remains finely balanced despite City's nine-point advantage and improved metrics, as the Opta supercomputer still rates this single match as almost even, while Chelsea's history of late surges, strong away record, and defensive resilience suggest the result at the Etihad Stadium will heavily influence, but not definitively settle, the Women's Super League title race.
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