Tottenham enter Monday’s meeting with Leeds United knowing a victory would almost secure Premier League safety after West Ham’s 1-0 loss to Arsenal reduced the relegation threat and left Roberto De Zerbi’s side able to move four points clear of danger with only two fixtures left in the season.
Spurs have already responded under De Zerbi, defeating relegated Wolves 1-0 and then overcoming a weakened Aston Villa 2-1, results that eased pressure after a long slump and brought renewed belief to the squad as the club attempts to close out a troubled campaign with survival confirmed.
The Opta supercomputer now gives Tottenham just a 12.3% chance of relegation, with 87.7% of season simulations projecting West Ham to finish 18th, while Nottingham Forest
and Leeds have mathematically secured their Premier League status for 2026/27 following West Ham’s defeat, altering the final-week stakes for all three clubs.
Tottenham’s position looks far brighter than when De Zerbi arrived, with the team then on a 15-game Premier League winless streak, having failed to win any league match between 28 December and 25 April, a stretch that dragged the club deep into the relegation picture and damaged confidence throughout the squad.
Rodrigo Bentancur says De Zerbi has lifted the atmosphere noticeably since taking charge. "We understand the situation, and now, after you get back to winning games, the energy changes a lot, and we feel really good," Bentancur told the club’s website, underlining how recent results have shifted the mood inside the dressing room.
Bentancur explained the message from the new head coach. "Roberto has tried to work in a positive mentality and positive aspects. He said, ‘You guys play really good, now we need to start to play again’, so we’ve worked like this. He works really well in the tactical aspect, and then, with the ball, he is amazing. "
Bentancur added that training ideas are beginning to show in matches. "We try to take what we work on in the week to do the same in the game, and I think the last game against Villa, we showed how we want to play. We want to continue with this. "
Defeat for @WestHam means that @NFFC and @LUFC have secured their Premier League status for 2026/27How the remainder of the season looks for @SpursOfficial and @WestHam as they aim to avoid relegationPremier League (@premierleague) May 10, 2026
Tottenham vs Leeds Premier League relegation test for Farke’s side
Leeds are now guaranteed another Premier League season, yet assistant coach Edmund Riemer expects a demanding contest. Reimer told reporters: "I think it will be a huge test, in terms of Spurs, they will go for it. I know the manager managed to get them out of the relegation places, so we are fully aware that we need to be up for it, and we want to maintain our top form. This is the best form we have been in throughout the season now, and we want to finish the season on a high. "
Leeds’ recent numbers emphasise that warning; since the start of December, only six Premier League teams have collected more than their 32 points, and in that same timeframe only Manchester City, Manchester United and Bournemouth have lost fewer league matches, with Leeds suffering just four defeats during that strong run.
Tottenham vs Leeds Premier League relegation key players
Individual threats on both sides could shape Monday’s match. For Spurs, Richarlison remains crucial in attack, while Leeds rely heavily on Noah Okafor’s sharp finishing since February, with both forwards entering this fixture in strong statistical form and carrying influence in crowded penalty areas.
| Team | Player | Key Premier League stats |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | Richarlison | 25 goals and nine assists across the last three seasons, averaging one goal involvement every 109 minutes. |
| Leeds United | Noah Okafor | Six goals in 408 minutes since February, averaging one goal every 68 minutes, best rate for players with 200+ minutes. |
Richarlison’s record across the previous three Premier League campaigns places the Brazil forward among the division’s most productive attackers, with only Mohamed Salah, Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak recording a goal or assist more frequently than Richarlison among players who have logged at least 3,000 minutes during that span.
Tottenham vs Leeds Premier League relegation statistics and prediction
Historically, this fixture favours Tottenham, who have won eight of the last nine Premier League meetings with Leeds, including five straight victories since a 3-1 defeat to Marcelo Bielsa’s side in May 2021, and De Zerbi’s team now seek three consecutive league wins for the first time since February 2025.
De Zerbi’s aggressive pressing style is already visible in the numbers; across four Premier League matches under the Italian, Spurs have averaged 5.3 final-third possession wins per game, the highest figure for any manager with at least four games at one club this season, and notably above their rates under Thomas Frank and Igor Tudor, which stood at 3.7 and 3.8 respectively.
Staying together to achieve our goal pic.twitter.com/pk5tfp0WlK
- Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) May 10, 2026
| Outcome | Opta win probability |
|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 51.5% |
| Draw | 22% |
| Leeds United win | 26.5% |
Opta’s model favours Tottenham, rating the home side’s chances of victory at 51.5%, with Leeds given a 26.5% probability and the draw option assessed at 22%, figures that reflect both Spurs’ improving form and Leeds’ strong recent record ahead of a crucial contest near the bottom of the table.
