Fulham and Brighton meet at Craven Cottage on Saturday with both sides seeking stability, as recent league form raises questions. Brighton sit one point behind Fulham after one win in nine Premier League games, while the Opta supercomputer gives almost identical chances for either team to take three points.
Brighton’s long dip has moved the team from fifth to 12th in the Premier League table, despite several competitive displays. Fulham also arrive after a setback, with a 1-0 loss at Leeds United ending a six-match unbeaten league sequence and raising concerns over attacking sharpness, especially after a subdued second half at Elland Road.
Advanced modelling suggests a very even contest. The Opta supercomputer gives Fulham a 37.9% chance of victory
and Brighton 35.7%, with a draw rated at 26.4%. Those numbers mirror the tight mid-table gap, and support the view that there is little between these sides at present.
Historical results also lean towards a close meeting, yet the record favours Fulham. Brighton have only one win from 11 Premier League games against Fulham, with five draws and five defeats. That 9% win rate is Brighton’s lowest against any opponent faced more than twice in the competition.
The venue has also suited Fulham. The team are unbeaten in five Premier League home matches against Brighton, winning four and drawing one, after losing three straight meetings in the Championship. Brighton’s broader record in London is also difficult reading, with only two wins in 18 league away games in the capital.
Those two recent London successes came against Tottenham in May last season and Chelsea in September. Across the other 16 trips, Brighton drew seven and lost nine. This pattern, plus Fulham’s strong home record in this fixture, underpins predictions that suggest a narrow margin or another share of the points.
Fabian Hurzeler argues that Brighton’s slide is more about details than major flaws. Hurzeler told Sky Sports: "We need to make the small margins right and that is what we definitely have to improve. We keep on working, and we need to understand that we need to bring consistency into our behaviour. That is what we will work on. "
Brighton’s ability to recover from setbacks supports that view. The team have avoided defeat in a league-high eight Premier League matches after conceding first this season, with three wins and five draws. They drew 1-1 with Manchester City and Bournemouth in their last two games, each time rescuing a point from a losing position.
The late equaliser against Bournemouth underlined this resilience. Brighton trailed 1-0 before Charalampos Kostoulas scored with a stoppage-time overhead kick, assisted by Jan Paul van Hecke. That moment preserved a point but extended a run of five draws in the last nine league fixtures under Hurzeler, highlighting both spirit and frustration.
Van Hecke’s attacking output from defence has been notable. The centre-back has three goals and two assists in this Premier League campaign, meaning no defender has more direct goal contributions. Kostoulas, a Greek teenager, received most praise for the spectacular finish, yet Van Hecke’s delivery again showed Brighton’s threat from deeper positions.
Fulham’s main forward numbers tell a more mixed story. Raul Jimenez has scored five Premier League goals this season, and every one has given Fulham the lead, the best such 100% record in the division. However, Jimenez averages one goal every 280 minutes, his slowest return since joining Fulham from Wolves in 2023.
Jimenez recorded a goal every 200 minutes in 2023-24 and every 208 minutes in 2024-25, so this season’s rate reflects some reduced efficiency. That matters for a Fulham side that usually scores regularly. Marco Silva’s team have not failed to score in back-to-back league matches since May 2024, a streak now under review after defeat at Leeds United.
Silva did not spare criticism after that performance, particularly the attacking display after half-time at Elland Road. Silva said: "We cannot perform always incredibly well, like Iand all of our fanswould like to see. Normally we create more chances. I don't remember one clear chance from us in the second halfthat shows that we didn't perform the way we should. Even on the ball, we were not aggressive enough. We didn't get on the counter-attack many times, trying to penetrate, to cross, all that stuff, I don't remember it really. That just shows that we were not at our level in the second half, and because of that we lost the game, and we have to move on. "
It's just absolutely sensational from Babis, isn't it? pic.twitter.com/VnWbKxAKE1Brighton & Hove Albion (@OfficialBHAFC) January 21, 2026
Fulham vs Brighton match prediction and key numbers
Both managers now look for a reaction. Fulham aim to regain their attacking rhythm and extend an unbeaten Premier League home run against Brighton. Hurzeler’s side seek improved consistency while keeping the strong mentality that has delivered several comebacks, including the dramatic late overhead kick from Kostoulas against Bournemouth.
Key individual statistics for the match include Jimenez’s scoring record and Van Hecke’s creative output from defence, which could influence the tactical balance at Craven Cottage.
The overall probabilities for Saturday’s Premier League meeting, as calculated by Opta, are shown below and underline the narrow expected margin between Fulham and Brighton.
Recent form, head-to-head history and statistical models all point towards another closely fought contest between these mid-table rivals. Fulham’s strong record against Brighton, especially at Craven Cottage, contrasts with Brighton’s habit of earning draws and recovering from setbacks, making another shared result a realistic match prediction.
