Napoli visit Lazio in Serie A with Antonio Conte chasing a first league win over Maurizio Sarri, while the champions look to close the gap on AC Milan and maintain their recent winning run in all competitions.
Sarri is the only coach Conte has faced at least twice in Europe’s top five leagues and never avoided defeat against, adding extra focus to this fixture alongside the Opta model, which gives Napoli a 41.4% chance of victory at the Stadio Olimpico.
Lazio are unbeaten in their last five Serie A meetings with Napoli, taking three wins and two draws after previously losing 10 of the earlier 12 league clashes, while Sarri has beaten Conte twice in two Serie A games, both in 2019-20 when Conte coached Inter and Sarri led Juventus.
Conte’s record against Sarri underlines the tactical challenge; those defeats finished 2-1 in Conte’s home match and 2-0 away, and Sarri now has the chance to join Pep Guardiola and Massimiliano Allegri as coaches with at least three league wins over Conte in Europe’s major competitions.
Napoli have dealt with a crowded schedule including Champions League fixtures and several injuries to key players, and club head of first-team management Lele Oriali believes Conte’s approach has helped stabilise performances despite those setbacks and the pressure of defending the Serie A title.
Oriali highlighted the influence of the head coach during this demanding period, saying: "We're fortunate to have our leader, Antonio Conte, who doesn't give up in the face of difficulties," he told Radio Crc. "And the team has followed him: we've faced serious problems, managing, through his insights and ideas, to find the right balance. I think this demonstrates the group's unity and the team spirit that has been created in the face of difficulties: the team has come together even more, managing to overcome these injuries. "
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Before facing Lazio, Napoli sit third in Serie A after AC Milan beat Cagliari, though a win in Rome would move Conte’s side within one point of Milan, while Sarri’s team currently hold ninth place and look to climb closer to the European positions.
Napoli’s opponents arrive in consistent form, as Lazio are unbeaten in their last four Serie A games with one victory and three draws, and this current sequence includes two consecutive league draws which mirror their recent home results against Napoli.
The recent meetings at the Stadio Olimpico suggest a tight contest, because Lazio and Napoli have drawn their last two Serie A matches there after 10 straight league fixtures in Rome without a draw, a run that saw two Lazio wins and eight Napoli victories.
Lazio’s trend of stalemates extends beyond this fixture; Sarri’s side have drawn three of their last four league matches, and the last time Lazio recorded at least three successive Serie A draws came in the spell between November and December 2018, when Simone Inzaghi was in charge and they drew four straight games.
Napoli, however, travel with strong recent form as Conte’s side have won their last three matches in all competitions without conceding, and another victory with a clean sheet would mark their first run this season of four consecutive wins and four successive shutouts.
Napoli vs Lazio Serie A players to watch
For Lazio, Gustav Isaksen has built a notable record against Napoli, scoring twice in Serie A meetings with the champions, with both goals coming across his last two games against them, and despite appearing in only 11 league matches this season, Isaksen leads Lazio for shots on target with nine.
Napoli’s main attacking reference is Rasmus Hojlund, who has scored nine goals in 20 games across all competitions for the club in the 2025-26 season, and the Manchester United loanee can reach 10 goals faster than in any previous campaign in Europe’s top five leagues, bettering the 28 appearances needed with Manchester United in 2023-24.
Hojlund also leads Serie A scoring since the start of December, registering five league goals in seven appearances for Napoli, and those five goals have come from just 10 shots on target, underlining efficient finishing ahead of this meeting with Lazio’s defence.
The Opta model gives Napoli the highest probability of winning this Serie A clash, though a draw remains a strong possibility given Lazio’s recent record of stalemates and their unbeaten sequence against Napoli in the league.
| Outcome | Opta win probability |
|---|---|
| Lazio | 29.1% |
| Draw | 29.5% |
| Napoli | 41.4% |
Both teams therefore enter this Napoli vs Lazio Serie A match with clear trends; Lazio rely on solidity and recent unbeaten form, while Napoli carry momentum from three straight wins and Conte’s influence, making the tactical battle with Sarri central to how the contest is likely decided.
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