Aston Villa Seek Top-Five Finish Game By Game, Emery Says Season Has Been More Up Than Down

Aston Villa focus on each fixture as the Premier League top-four race continues, with Unai Emery stressing short-term thinking before Brighton visit Villa Park on Wednesday, while the team still targets Champions League qualification after a largely positive campaign that has included long winning spells and recent setbacks at home.

Villa currently sit third in the Premier League table and are well placed to return to UEFA's main club competition for the first time since the format changed, with England expected to receive a fifth Champions League place, giving Emery's side a strong platform despite a recent dip.

Projections from the Opta supercomputer show Villa are rated at just 1.1% to win the Premier League title, yet the same model gives

them a 43.9% likelihood of securing third place and a 95.5% chance of ending within the top five, keeping Champions League ambitions very realistic.

Scenario	Opta probability
Win Premier League title	1.1%
Finish 3rd	43.9%
Finish in top five	95.5%

Recent midweek form in the Premier League has been mixed for Villa, with only two wins from their last seven Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday league games, alongside two draws and three defeats, although both of those victories came against Brighton, by scores of 3-0 and 4-3.

Midweek Premier League record	Matches
Wins	2
Draws	2
Losses	3

Emery's team can complete a third Premier League double over Brighton, having beaten the Seagulls home and away in both the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, and the head coach says the dressing room remains upbeat after a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth on Saturday, despite more dropped points.

Villa now aim to respond after two straight home league defeats, which followed a run of eight consecutive Premier League home wins, and the club has not lost three home league matches in succession since November 2020 under Dean Smith, when Brighton supplied the third setback.

Speaking during Tuesday's pre-match press conference, Emery underlined that the focus remains on the immediate fixtures rather than the broader picture, saying: "We are not thinking about the end of the season, we are thinking about now. We can speak about how we were in September, and we are enjoying the difference. We are enjoying the process, we are competing, we are feeling comfortable about how we are doing. It's been up and down sometimes, but more up than down, we went a lot of matches in a row winning. "

Leading us into MD26 pic.twitter.com/xdbDadyiRvAston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) February 10, 2026

Emery also highlighted the squad's reaction to recent results, explaining the work done behind the scenes after back-to-back home losses and the Bournemouth draw, saying: "Now, we had two defeats at home, and we understand something like this could happen, the Spaniard said. We analysed it with the players, we analysed those matches, and of course, we are trying to avoid making those same mistakes we made, or some circumstances we had. But now, I am positive. The players as well, they are working very well every day. They played a fantastic game on Saturday, competing fantastically at Bournemouth, and tomorrow, we have a new challenge. "

With Champions League qualification firmly within reach, Villa approach Brighton with a blend of caution and confidence, aware that another defeat would echo their 2020 sequence, yet encouraged by past results against the same opponents and by Emery's insistence on learning quickly from recent home setbacks.