Bayern Munich are arguably Europe's best team. But winning the Champions League would be a way to prove it.
Last week, Bayern turned in a statement performance at the Santiago Bernabeu, where they came away as 2-1 victors.
However, Kylian Mbappe's strike has given Real Madrid something to build on in Wednesday's second leg, as these two giants of European football battle it out for a place in the Champions League semi-finals.
Both teams had 20 shots apiece in what was a high-octane thriller in the first leg, but Bayern's quality just told in the end, with Luis Diaz and Harry Kane giving them the advantage in the tie.
And now, back on home turf, the Bundesliga champions elect will be looking to get the job done, with a treble well on the cards for
them this term.
What's expected?
Bayern's victory in the first leg ended a nine-game winless run for them against Madrid in the Champions League (D2 L7).
Only once before have they won both legs of a knockout stage tie against them in the European Cup/Champions League, doing so in the 2000-01 semi-finals (1-0 away, 2-1 at home).
Since the start of the 2013-14 season, Madrid (three) have the joint-most away wins against Bayern across all competitions, despite only playing there four times in this period (also three wins in 17 games for Borussia Dortmund and three wins in 13 games for Borussia Monchengladbach).
Plus, Madrid are unbeaten in their last four away games against Bayern (W3 D1).
In the Bundesliga era (since 1963-64), only two sides have managed to go five in a row without losing away to Bayern: Werder Bremen (five from 1989-1992 and 2007-2010) and Koln (5 from 2003-2010).
Bayern's recent record against Madrid may not be fantastic, but Opta's supercomputer is fancying them to get the job done.
Vincent Kompany's team come out on top in 56.9% of the model's data-led sims, with Madrid winning 22.8% of the time. There is a 20.3% chance of a draw.
Free-scoring Bayern set for glory?
Bayern have already plundered 105 Bundesliga goals, smashing the record for the number of goals in a single campaign in the competition with plenty of games to spare.
Kompany has now overseen 101 games at the helm, and in that time, Bayern have scored more goals (307) and registered a higher expected goals (267.8) than any other team in Europe's top five leagues across all competitions. Only Barcelona (82) and Real Madrid (78) can boast more wins than Bayern's 77.
Bayern's victory at the Bernabeu was the 23rd time they won away from home in the first leg of a two-legged knockout stage tie in the European Cup/Champions League - they have only been eliminated in one of the previous 22, suffering an away goals defeat to Inter in the 2010-11 round of 16 (won 1-0 away, lost 3-2 at home).
Since winning the trophy back in 2020, Bayern have only progressed beyond the quarter-finals once, doing so in 2023-24, so while many onlookers are considering them favourites for the title, there is still a major hurdle for them to navigate.
Their fearsome attack is spearheaded by Kane, but he is by far Bayern's only threat.
Michael Olise has assisted six goals in the Champions League this season; the joint-most by a Bayern player in a single edition (also Leroy Sane in 2021-22 and Hasan Salihamidzic in 2001-02).
The winger leads the way for assists in all competitions among players in Europe's top five leagues this term, with 25.
Then there is Diaz, who has eight goal involvements in the Champions League this season (five goals, three assists), now the most by a Colombian in a single season in the competition.
Champions League specialists to strike again?
Madrid have the most semi-final appearances in European Cup/Champions League history (33).
If they are eliminated here, however, they will have failed to reach the semi-finals as many times in the last two seasons (two) as they did in the previous 14 editions combined, between 2010-11 and 2023-24 (two).
But while Bayern come into this contest on the back of a huge win over St. Pauli, Madrid could only draw 1-1 with Girona in their last LaLiga outing, leaving their title hopes fading fast.
Indeed, given the nine-point advantage Barca hold in LaLiga, the Champions League is realistically Madrid's last hope of silverware this season, so the pressure is on.
Bayern are handed an 83.7% chance of progressing from the tie, and they have a 30.2% likelihood of going all the way and winning the trophy, Madrid are certainly not as well-fancied by the Opta supercomputer.
Madrid, on the other hand, are given just a 3.2% chance of winning the title. Of the teams left in the competition, only Sporting CP (1.9%) and Liverpool (1.8%) have a lower probability of claiming the trophy.
This is Madrid, though. They can never be discounted, especially in the Champions League.
Preparing for the match against @FCBayernEN! pic.twitter.com/VJ5dihdNzF
— Real Madrid C.F. (@realmadriden) April 12, 2026
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Bayern Munich - Harry Kane
Kane is enjoying a stellar season. Already on 49 goals in all competitions for his club this term, 10 more than any other player in Europe's top five leagues (Mbappe ranks second on 39).
The 32-year-old has scored or assisted in four consecutive Champions League appearances against Madrid (two goals, two assists), the joint-longest run by a player against the Spanish side in the competition (also four by Giovane Élber in 2002 and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in 2017).
The England captain has 30 goals in 35 Champions League appearances for Bayern Munich - the most of any player in the competition since the start of 2023-24.
Real Madrid - Kylian Mbappe
If Los Blancos are to make it through, then Mbappe will likely be crucial.
Nine of Mbappe's 14 goals in the Champions League this season have been scored away from home. Should he find the net in this game, the Madrid forward would be the first player ever to score 10+ away goals in a single European Cup/Champions League edition.
Mbappe is just three goals away from equalling Cristiano Ronaldo's record for the most in a single Champions League campaign (17, set in 2013-14).
Robert Lewandowski (15 in 2019-20), and Karim Benzema (15 in 2021-22) are the only players other than Ronaldo to net 15+ in a single season.
Three more goals would also see him move above Madrid great Raul, into the all-time top five for Champions League goals.
