Arsenal Must Learn From Painful EFL Cup Semi-Final Exit, Arteta Urges Improvement

Arsenal head to Stamford Bridge on 14 January for the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final against Chelsea, aiming to avoid another painful exit at this stage after last season’s defeat to Newcastle United, while recent Opta projections give Mikel Arteta’s side a narrow edge to progress.

Arsenal reached the last four by beating Crystal Palace on penalties, yet the semi-final has often halted their progress in this competition, with nine eliminations at this stage, level with Tottenham, and another exit would mirror Manchester United’s back-to-back EFL Cup semi-final defeats in 2019-20 and 2020-21.

This tie is the third EFL Cup semi-final meeting between Chelsea and Arsenal, with the Blues advancing in 1997-98 and the Gunners progressing in 2017-18,

and it joins Arsenal v Spurs, Chelsea v Spurs and Manchester City v Manchester United as fixtures played at least three times in the competition’s last four.

Recent semi-finals have not favoured Arsenal in any competition, with four successive exits in the Europa League 2020-21, the EFL Cup 2021-22 and 2024-25, plus the 2024-25 Champions League, marking the longest sequence of last-four failures in the club’s history across all tournaments.

Chelsea’s route to the EFL Cup semi-final has included wins over Cardiff City, Wolves and Lincoln City, achieved under Enzo Maresca, while current head coach Liam Rosenior opened tenure with a 5-1 FA Cup victory against Charlton Athletic, though Rosenior now faces a different kind of challenge against an organised Arsenal side.

Arsenal reached this stage by edging Crystal Palace, then displayed strength from dead-ball situations in the FA Cup third-round win at Portsmouth on 11 January, yet Rosenior insists the north London side show quality in every phase rather than depending solely on set plays or isolated moments.

"Arsenal are good at everything. They are very good without the ball," said Rosenior. "They have a really clear idea in the way they want to play with the ball. And on top of that, they're very well organised with good delivery on set plays. I respect them, and I think they'll respect us because we're a good team as well. We'll need to have a really good game on Wednesday and it's going to be a great occasion. "

Chelsea vs Arsenal EFL Cup semi-final key players

Alejandro Garnacho stands out for Chelsea in this season’s EFL Cup, contributing eight goal involvements across the last five appearances, with five goals and three assists, including two strikes from the bench during the 3-1 quarter-final victory over Cardiff City at Stamford Bridge.

For Arsenal, Mikel Merino carries a specific record against Chelsea, having scored in both Premier League meetings in March and November 2025, and Merino could emulate Ian Wright, the last Arsenal player to score in three straight matches against the Blues, who achieved four between 1992 and 1994.

Dec from 36 yards It's a trip to Chelsea up next pic.twitter.com/WVuRVYNOMG Arsenal (@Arsenal) January 12, 2026

Garna. pic.twitter.com/DSjXBmB44C Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) January 13, 2026

Chelsea vs Arsenal EFL Cup semi-final statistics and prediction

Historically in this competition, Chelsea have progressed from four of six EFL Cup ties against Arsenal, with the Gunners prevailing only in the 1976-77 fourth round and the 2017-18 semi-final, while Chelsea have scored nine goals this season, the highest among the remaining teams in the tournament.

Opta’s model leans towards an Arsenal victory in this latest meeting, with Chelsea given a 26.6% chance of winning the match, the draw rated at 23.7% and Arsenal leading the probabilities at 49.7%, reflecting Arsenal’s consistency in recent rounds despite their difficult record in semi-finals.

Outcome	Opta win probability
Chelsea win	26.6%
Draw	23.7%
Arsenal win	49.7%

Chelsea vs Arsenal EFL Cup semi-final mindset and lessons

Arteta addressed last season’s semi-final loss to Newcastle United, stressing the need to show improvement this time and highlighting both the emotional impact of that exit and the importance of being more ruthless when chances arrive in a two-legged contest against another major Premier League opponent.

"Football gives you another chance," said Arteta. "We have been really consistent again in the competition and no we have to knock another big team out to be in the final. That's the mission. Hopefully, we learn from last year because it was painful, especially the manner in which the games went and the amount of chances we missed. Hopefully, this year we are better and more efficient. "

With Arsenal’s semi-final record under scrutiny, Chelsea’s attacking numbers strong and both managers outlining clear respect for the opposition, the first leg at Stamford Bridge on 14 January offers a balanced contest where recent history, key individuals and small margins around set plays and finishing could decide who moves closer to Wembley.