WTA Finals: Reigning champion Gauff out to fend off Swiatek and top dog Sabalenka

The conclusion of the women's tennis season is here, with the year-ending WTA Finals starting in Riyadh on Saturday (November 1).

Coco Gauff is looking to become only the fourth woman this century to defend the title, with Iga Swiatek the only other 2025 participant to have previously tasted glory at the event.

Aryna Sabalenka, meanwhile, is already guaranteed to finish as the year-end number one for the second campaign in a row and is hoping to cap another glittering season with a fifth title.

Amanda Anisimova, Jessica Pegula, Elena Rybakina, Madison Keys and Jasmine Paolini round out the field, with four players going into the Steffi Graf Group and the others into the Serena Williams Group, with the top two in each pool advancing to the semi-finals.

But who will lift the trophy? Here, we preview the 2025 WTA Tour finale with the help of Opta data and insights.

Coco targets repeat triumph

Last year, Gauff beat Zheng Qinwen in a deciding tie-break to become the first American to win the WTA Finals since Serena Williams in 2014, and at the age of 20, the youngest player to lift the trophy since Maria Sharapova in 2004.

She certainly did not have it easy, defeating the WTA's two top-ranked players - Swiatek in the group stage and Sabalenka in the semi-finals.

Gauff could now become the first player to win back-to-back editions of the WTA Finals since Williams (three in a row, 2012 to 2014) and the youngest since Kim Clijsters (2002 and 2003).

The 21-year-old has plenty of experience at the WTA Finals, becoming the youngest player to qualify for four consecutive editions since Sharapova between 2004 and 2007, and the youngest American since Lindsay Davenport from 1994 to 1997.

Gauff's title defence begins against her compatriot Pegula on Sunday, with Sabalenka and Paolini joining the duo in the Steffi Graf Group.

And given the tournament pits the top eight players in the world against one another, Gauff will hope her excellent record against her fellow big-name players plays a part.

Only Sabalenka, with 11, has managed more top-10 wins than Gauff (nine) on the WTA Tour this year.

Though Gauff has triumphed at Roland-Garros and Wuhan this year, she needs another title to replicate last year's tally of three singles WTA titles, having won four in 2023.

Sabalenka to finally make top seeding count?

Sabalenka is the first player to qualify for the WTA Finals as a top seed three years in a row since Graf did so four times in a row between 1993 and 1996.

Graf won the competition three times throughout that stretch, but Sabalenka has gone out in the semi-finals in each of the last two years, with her best run coming when she was seeded seventh in 2022, finishing as runner-up to Caroline Garcia.

Since 1972, the only other players to be seeded first for three straight editions of the WTA Finals are Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova.

Sabalenka's US Open triumph ensured she would not finish 2025 empty-handed, as far as the grand slams are concerned, having suffered heartbreaking final defeats to Keys at the Australian Open and Gauff at Roland-Garros.

The Belarusian has won 59 of her 70 singles matches this year, amassing 9,870 rankings points to hold off Swiatek for top spot once again.

Her opening match, against Paolini on Sunday, will be her 500th at WTA events, excluding the Billie Jean King Cup. Across her first 499 matches, Sabalenka currently holds a record of 364-135.

Should Sabalenka survive the group stage, she could renew her rivalry with Swiatek in the last four or the final.

Sabalenka and Swiatek will be the first duo to appear at the WTA Finals for five years in a row (2021-2025) since Agnieszka Radwanska and Petra Kvitova did so from 2011 to 2015.

They will also be the first pair of players to appear at the WTA Finals as the top two seeds for three consecutive years since Davenport and Martina Hingis, between 1998 and 2000.

Swiatek leads other contenders, momentum with Anisimova?

While Sabalenka tops the world rankings and Gauff can lean on the experience of winning the 2024 Finals, Swiatek - who won the 2023 edition - could be the player to watch.

The Pole, who will face Keys, Rybakina and Anisimova in the Serena Williams Group, has the most wins on the WTA Tour this year (61).

It is her fourth consecutive season with at least 60 wins, making her the first player to achieve that feat since Hingis (five from 1997 to 2001) and Davenport (1998 to 2001).

And among active players, only Sloane Stephens (80%, 4-1) and Elina Svitolina (76.9%, 10-3) hold a better winning percentage at the WTA Finals than Swiatek's 73.3% (11-4).

Swiatek failed to escape her group last year, having thrashed Pegula 6-1 6-0 in the 2023 final. She was a semi-finalist in 2022 and exited in the group stage on her debut in 2021.

At the age of 24, Swiatek is the youngest player to appear at the WTA Finals for five consecutive years since Victoria Azarenka between 2009 and 2013.

But perhaps the momentum is with the player currently ranked fourth in the world, Anisimova.

A runner-up at both Wimbledon and Flushing Meadows this year, Anisimova is the only player at the 2025 WTA Finals to qualify after starting 2025 outside the world's top 20 - she was ranked 36th on January 6, 2025.

Since the start of the grass season (after Roland-Garros), Anisimova has reached the joint-most WTA-level finals, alongside Swiatek (four). The American went all the way at Queen's, Wimbledon, the US Open and Beijing and also has the most top-10 victories on the tour in that span (six).

Anisimova is also the only player on the tour to have beaten each of the current top three - Sabalenka, Swiatek and Gauff - this year. She did so at Wimbledon, the US Open and the China Open, respectively.

However, Anisimova and Keys are the only qualifiers that are yet to play a single indoor match this season, so they may need to adapt to the conditions.

They are two of four Americans to qualify, with this the first time a single nation has had as many as four WTA Finals participants at a single edition since Russia in 2009 (Dinara Safina, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Elena Dementieva and Vera Zvonareva).

Paolini and Rybakina made late runs to qualify, with Mirra Andreeva the player to surprisingly miss out.

Rybakina is the only player to have claimed more than 10 wins at grand slams, WTA 1000 and WTA 500 events, respectively, in 2025.

Paolini, meanwhile, has won six of her seven indoor matches this season, excluding the Billie Jean King Cup - the most such victories among the eight qualifiers.