Crystal Palace Aims To Shore Up Defence Ahead Of Villa Clash

Crystal Palace aim to halt a poor Premier League run when Aston Villa visit Selhurst Park on Wednesday, with Opta’s model giving Villa a 44.1% chance of victory. Palace have just one point from five league matches. Villa sit third, six points behind Arsenal, and can trim the gap to three.

Data highlights the scale of Villa’s opportunity. They have 42 points from 20 league fixtures, with 13 wins, three draws and four defeats. A further victory would take Villa to at least 45 points from 21 games, matching only 1895-96 and 1898-99, both title-winning campaigns for the club.

Villa’s current form has been strong despite a 4-1 defeat to Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal in their final match of 2025, which is their only loss across the last 10 Premier League games.

Villa answered that setback with a 3-1 success over Nottingham Forest, when John McGinn struck twice and Ollie Watkins also scored.

Watkins praised McGinn’s influence after that Forest win. "I can’t speak highly enough of Ginny when he’s playing like that; he’s unbelievable," said Watkins. "Very difficult to get the ball off. You can put him in any position, and he’s always going to put in a good performance for you. I think that’s why he’s the captain; he leads by example and credit to him, coming back into the starting 11 and scoring those two goals as well. "

Recent numbers underline Watkins’ importance ahead of the Villa trip to Palace. Since the beginning of December, Watkins has scored six Premier League goals, a tally matched only by Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Watkins now targets scoring in at least four straight league appearances, something last achieved in April 2023.

Palace enter this fixture in troubling form. The team have taken just one point from five league matches, a 1-1 draw with Fulham, while losing the other four. The latest defeat was a 2-0 loss at Newcastle United. That run has dropped Palace to 14th, on 27 points, before matchday 21.

Selhurst Park has not brought much comfort either. Palace are winless in five home Premier League matches, with two draws and three defeats. It is their longest wait for a home league victory since a seven-game sequence between September and December 2023 under Roy Hodgson. Overall, Palace have lost four of their previous five league fixtures, after just three defeats in the 21 before.

Head coach Oliver Glasner, who has been strongly linked with the Manchester United position following Ruben Amorim’s dismissal, has identified set-piece defending as a central weakness. Glasner felt that issue influenced the loss at Newcastle. Several absences have hit Palace’s aerial strength and organisation during these dead-ball situations.

Glasner listed some of the figures missing from those defensive routines. "We have to solve the problem of conceding goals from set-plays so often," Glasner said of the defeat to Newcastle. "There are a few explainable reasons. Maybe with Chris Richards [injured], we don’t have one of our best headers in the box available. With Ismaila Sarr [at the Africa Cup of Nations], who plays a key role on the near post and is also quite tall. He’s not here, and [injured] Dani Munoz was a good presence with his physicality. On the other side, this won’t change until Wednesday. "

As always, thank you for your support this afternoon. We go again on Wednesday back at Selhurst Park pic.twitter.com/lHv8vYEU5UCrystal Palace F.C. (@CPFC) January 4, 2026

Palace may look again to Jean-Philippe Mateta, who has an impressive personal record against Aston Villa in the Premier League. Mateta has contributed nine league goals versus Villa, from six goals and three assists, more than against any other opponent. Eight of those goal involvements have come across Mateta’s last five appearances against the Villans.

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa match prediction and Opta data

Historic head-to-head data in the Premier League offers encouragement for Palace. Villa have lost three of their last four league games against Palace, drawing the other match. They conceded 14 goals in those four meetings, equalling the total from the previous 15 top-flight clashes with the Eagles.

Palace also claimed a 3-0 success at Villa Park in August. Another victory on Wednesday would secure Palace’s first league double over Aston Villa since the 2013-14 season. However, that earlier result has not swayed the predictive model, which points towards Villa’s stronger recent performances and league position.

Opta’s supercomputer leans towards an away success in this latest meeting. Villa’s chance of victory is rated at 44.1%, with Palace given a 30.8% probability. The draw is viewed as the least likely result at 25.1%. Those figures reflect Villa’s consistent scoring output and Palace’s defensive issues from open play and set-pieces.

Crystal Palace’s priority will be restoring defensive discipline, especially at set-plays, while trying to build on Mateta’s strong record against Aston Villa and improve a difficult home sequence. Villa approach the contest with confidence after McGinn’s influence and Watkins’ scoring form, knowing another win would further strengthen their top-four push and maintain pressure on Arsenal at the top.