Leeds United face Nottingham Forest at Elland Road in a crucial Premier League clash on Friday, with both clubs level on points and fighting to avoid relegation. Opta’s model gives Leeds a 41.4% chance of victory, compared with 32% for Forest and 26.7% for a draw, underscoring how finely balanced this contest appears.
Daniel Farke’s team enter the match after a 4-0 home defeat to leaders Arsenal, a result that halted a five-game unbeaten league run at Elland Road. Despite that setback, Leeds still have only two losses in their last 11 Premier League matches, collecting three wins and six draws in that sequence.
Across those 11 recent league games, Leeds showed more resilience than in the poor spell between October and November. During that earlier
slump, they suffered six defeats in seven fixtures, winning only once. Since the beginning of December, performances have stabilised, although both of Leeds’ subsequent losses came by four-goal margins, including against Arsenal.
Nottingham Forest arrive with positive momentum, unbeaten in their last four Premier League outings, with two wins and two draws. This is Forest’s longest undefeated league run of the current campaign, and they last produced a longer streak between December and January last season, when they managed an eight-game sequence without losing.
Farke remains convinced that Leeds can collect the points required to stay in the Premier League, even after the heavy Arsenal defeat. Farke stated that this squad still has enough quality. "I am confident that with this group we can achieve our goals, our targets. We are capable of winning enough points to win the right to stay in this league. Nothing is achieved yet, though. In each and every gameday, you have to fight to win points. "
Farke also expects a demanding tactical battle against a Forest side coached by Sean Dyche. The Leeds head coach highlighted Dyche’s consistent work at this level. "He [Dyche]has a proven record at Premier League level,Farke said. He has shown several times what he is capable of. During this season he gave lots of stability back to Nottingham, who have won many points in recent weeks. I think Forest are a team of lots of individual quality; they qualified for Europe last season and have spent lots of money in the last summer. "
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest injuries, goalkeepers and Dyche’s view
Forest secured a place in the Europa League play-offs before drawing 1-1 with Crystal Palace, despite playing the entire second half with 10 players after Neco Williams was sent off for a 45th-minute handball. It was the first straight red card for handball by an outfield Premier League player since Reece James for Chelsea against Liverpool in August 2021.
That match also brought further problems when first-choice goalkeeper Matz Sels left at half-time because of injury, with Angus Gunn coming on from the bench. Dyche explained the uncertainty around Sels’ situation. "We're waiting over the next 48 hours to get some advice on it, so we'll get an opinion over the next few days before I think about the length of it, Dyche said of Sels' injury. We have a chance, but we'll see how it settles. "
Forest have already acted to strengthen their goalkeeping options, particularly as back-up John Victor is also unavailable. Former Manchester City goalkeeper Stefan Ortega has joined the squad to boost depth. Dyche detailed the reasoning behind that move. "He's a keeper that we have liked from history. I have always said that we have great goalkeepers at this football club, Dyche added. John getting injured has allowed the chance for Ortega to come in. He's enjoying it so far and has mixed in with the group. "
Forest (H) pic.twitter.com/x3tlcTANK4Leeds United (@LUFC) February 3, 2026
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest key players and attacking threats
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a central figure for Leeds, having scored nine Premier League goals this season. Calvert-Lewin has only twice hit double figures in a league campaign before, with 13 goals in 2019-20 and 16 in 2020-21. The last English player to reach 10 league goals in a first Leeds season was Matt Smith, who scored 12 Championship goals in 2013-14.
Morgan Gibbs-White continues to influence Forest’s attacking play and has been central to their recent improvement. Gibbs-White has either scored three goals or provided one assist in four of his last five Premier League appearances. Gibbs-White also struck the decisive goal in November’s reverse fixture, which gave Forest victory over Leeds earlier this season.
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest historic record, trends and prediction
Leeds have a strong home league record against Forest, with victories in their last three top-flight meetings at Elland Road in 1996, 1999 and 2023. Leeds have also scored in all 25 top-flight home games against Forest. Night fixtures provide further encouragement, as Leeds have won all four Premier League matches at Elland Road kicking off at 7.30pm or later this season, including a 4-1 win over Crystal Palace in December.
Forest seek their first league double over Leeds since the 2013-14 season, when both clubs were in the Championship. In the top division, Forest have only once previously completed a league double over Leeds, in the 1995-96 campaign. They may feel optimistic, as Forest have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League contests against promoted teams, winning nine and drawing five, with the only defeat a 1-0 home loss to Sunderland earlier this season.
Despite Forest’s solid record against promoted clubs, Opta’s prediction model still narrowly favours a home win in this match. Leeds’ improved form since December, strong Elland Road record under the lights, and belief expressed by Farke point towards another significant opportunity to move away from danger, while Forest’s injuries and recent European commitments add further intrigue to a vital fixture.
| Outcome | Opta win probability |
|---|---|
| Leeds | 41.4% |
| Draw | 26.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 32% |
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