Manchester City have shown some weaknesses in the early weeks of the season, highlighted by their 2-2 draw with Monaco in the Champions League. Erling Haaland scored twice in that match, but Monaco managed to equalise twice, with Eric Dier's late penalty securing a point. Haaland, who has already netted 11 goals this season, expressed frustration over City's inconsistent performances.
In the Premier League, City narrowed the gap to five points behind Liverpool after a decisive 5-1 victory over Burnley. Meanwhile, Liverpool suffered a defeat against Crystal Palace. This Sunday, City will face Brentford, who are buoyant after a 3-1 win over Manchester United at home. The Opta supercomputer predicts City will extend their unbeaten run to four games
in the Premier League.
The Opta supercomputer gives City a 48.9% chance of winning against Brentford, while Brentford's chances stand at 27.2%. The remaining simulations predict a draw at 23.9%. In terms of title predictions for the season, City are third favourites with a 10.3% chance of winning. Liverpool lead with 41.9%, followed by Arsenal at 37.7%. However, City have a strong likelihood of finishing in the top four at 60.8%.
Brentford are now more likely to finish in the top six (11.2%) than face relegation (8.8%). This is despite initial concerns following Thomas Frank's departure and key player sales like Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa.
Under Keith Andrews' management, Brentford have turned their home ground into a stronghold again, winning two out of three home Premier League matches this season and drawing against Chelsea. They have won four of their last six home league games overall (D1 L1), recovering from an eight-match winless streak under Frank last season.
City have only lost once in four Premier League visits to Brentford's Gtech Community Stadium (W2 D1). That loss came on the final day of the 2022-23 season when they had already secured the title and were on course for a treble.
Brentford's Ambitions Against Manchester Clubs
Brentford aim for an impressive feat as they face both Manchester clubs consecutively. Historically, only Tottenham achieved back-to-back wins against both teams in January 1996. After defeating United last week, Brentford hope to capitalise on their counter-attacking style against City.
Despite having attempted the fewest shots this season (51), Brentford rank joint-sixth for goals scored (nine). Their shot conversion rate stands at an impressive 17.7%, second only to City's 18.4%. Both teams have scored three goals from fast breaks this season.
Key Players to Watch
Brentford - Caoimhin Kelleher: Kelleher was crucial in Brentford's win over United by saving Bruno Fernandes' penalty. He has saved four out of seven penalties faced in his top-flight career with Liverpool and Brentford (57%).
Manchester City - Phil Foden: Foden has scored more Premier League goals against Brighton (eight) than any other team except Brentford (seven). Six of these goals came at Brentford's stadium, including a hat-trick during City's title-winning campaign in 2023-24.
Guardiola's Milestone and Haaland's Frustrations
Pep Guardiola is nearing another milestone with his next Premier League victory marking his 250th win in just his 349th match with City. This would break Arsene Wenger’s record of reaching that number in 423 games.
Keith Andrews on progression Relationships is a big word for me.The steps you take can't always be in the direction you want but consistently we've worked in a good way.I'm confident about the direction we are going but it is not always going to be plain sailingpic.twitter.com/EGtnYMejVX
- Brentford FC (@BrentfordFC)October 2, 2025
Haaland voiced his displeasure after City's draw with Monaco: "I'm p***** off, I think everyone should be. " He added that they need more energy and better performance throughout matches to avoid unnecessary mistakes.
The Norwegian striker continues to be reliable for City, scoring twice midweek to reach an impressive tally of 52 Champions League goals in just 50 appearances—surpassing Ruud van Nistelrooy’s record of 43 goals within his first fifty games.
