Bournemouth head into their Premier League meeting with Burnley believing momentum is turning, after a wild 4-4 draw at Manchester United showed signs of their early-season level returning. Marcus Tavernier expects that display, plus home advantage and Burnley’s problems, to help the team restart a winning run in the league.
The Old Trafford match left Bournemouth 13th, yet confidence grew from the way the team finished. Tavernier scored and assisted within six minutes after half-time, while Junior Kroupi struck an 84th-minute equaliser. Despite Bruno Fernandes and Matheus Cunha restoring United’s lead, Bournemouth pushed late and felt close to a decisive fifth goal.
Tavernier accepted that the draw did not change their league position, but saw
a turning point. "We ended the game strongly and, if anyone was going to score a winner, it felt like it would be us," Tavernier said. "We'll reflect on this performance and see where we can improve. There are a lot of positives for us to take, especially against a team thats in good form. "
Tavernier, who both scored and assisted in a Premier League match for the third time, believes rhythm is returning. "We're starting to perform more like ourselves again, and we know what we're capable of. " Bournemouth had already produced a strong display against Chelsea, and senior players feel those levels are now becoming the standard again.
Captain Adam Smith shared Tavernier’s view that the side now look more recognisable. "We were ourselves last week against Chelsea, and we were ourselves again, apart from that first 20 minutes," Smith said. "It's tight margins in these games, but the belief in this group is massive. Hopefully, things will swing our way because if we keep performing like this, good things will come. "
Those tight margins have also defined Bournemouth’s recent run without a win. The team are winless in seven Premier League games, drawing three and losing four, their longest such spell since a 13-match sequence between May and October 2023. They also failed to score in their last two home league fixtures, something that last happened between August and September 2023.
Bournemouth vs Burnley Premier League Opta stats and trends
History against Burnley offers mixed signals for Bournemouth. The Cherries completed a league double over the Clarets in 2023-24, matching their total victories from the previous 13 league meetings, which produced two wins, three draws and eight defeats. Burnley, however, have won three of their last four Premier League away games at Bournemouth, although they lost the most recent visit 2-1 in October 2023.
Opta’s model still leans strongly towards a home victory. Bournemouth are rated as clear favourites, while Burnley face long odds to improve their position. The Opta supercomputer also gives Burnley only an 11.3% probability of avoiding the bottom three by the end of the season, underlining the pressure around this fixture for Scott Parker’s team.
Burnley’s broader situation remained difficult after a 3-2 home defeat against Fulham at the weekend. That loss kept Burnley on 10 Premier League points from 16 matches, their second-lowest tally at this stage of any league season this century. Defensive lapses and missed chances again proved costly, after what Parker described as another match decided by fine details.
Parker highlighted concentration as a key problem. "It's an element of concentration and focus. It's a deadly league. One lapse in concentration and nine times out of 10 it's in the back of the net," Parker said. "There are massive positives from today. The fine margins are what we've been on the wrong end of. The higher level you go in life, it's the finer margins. I feel I have a strong group. You can't deny this is a group fully committed together. Human nature tells you it'll take its toll. It's my job to try to lift us up. We had a mountain to climb in this league. The mountain isn't huge for us. It's just a tiny bit [we need to fix]. "
Bournemouth vs Burnley Premier League key players to watch
Kroupi’s impact at Old Trafford drew further attention to Bournemouth’s young talent. After five Premier League appearances without scoring, Kroupi ended the run with the equaliser against United. Kroupi has now scored five of the 12 Premier League goals netted by teenagers this season, giving the teenager a 42% share of that total across the division.
Among teenagers across Europe’s top five leagues this season, only Lamine Yamal, Yan Diomande and Said El Mala have more goals, with six each. That record places Kroupi among the most productive young forwards in those competitions. Bournemouth will again look to Kroupi’s energy and movement to unsettle a Burnley defence that has struggled to maintain structure.
Burnley’s main attacking threat on the road has been Zian Flemming. Flemming has scored in four consecutive Premier League away games for Burnley, totalling five goals across those matches. No player has ever scored in four straight away Premier League matches and lost every one, but Flemming’s last three away goals have all come in defeats.
Bournemouth vs Burnley Premier League historical context and probabilities
Burnley arrive at Bournemouth on a seven-match Premier League losing streak. Another defeat would equal the longest sequence of league losses in the club’s history, having previously lost eight in a row three times. Those runs came between November 1889 and February 1890, March and September 1895, and January and February 1995 across the top flight and second tier.
Ahead of kick-off, Opta’s win probability model gives Bournemouth a 63.6% chance of victory, with the draw rated at 19.4% and Burnley at 17%. Bournemouth’s recent lack of wins and goals contrasts with Burnley’s poor form and defensive issues, leaving both sides under pressure, but the numbers and recent head-to-head record tilt the balance towards a Bournemouth success.
1+1 - In Bournemouths Marcus Tavernier and Manchester United Bruno Fernandes, both sides scored a direct free-kick in a Premier League game for the first time since QPR v Wigan Athletic in January 2012 (kos Buzsky and Hugo Rodallega). Rarity. pic.twitter.com/8R5LvWifL2OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 15, 2025
Bournemouth’s belief, strengthened by the display at Old Trafford and recent performances against leading sides, contrasts with Burnley’s search for defensive stability and points. With Tavernier, Kroupi and Flemming all in form, the match brings together two teams under different kinds of pressure, yet both aware that small details could decide an important fixture.
