Nigeria and hosts Morocco meet on Wednesday in a high-profile Africa Cup of Nations semi-final, with Eric Chelle hinting at a more cautious strategy despite Nigeria’s attacking numbers, while Walid Regragui’s organised Moroccan side seeks a first AFCON final since 2004 in a clash between the tournament’s two teams who have never trailed so far.
Nigeria arrive with the most goals in the 2025 AFCON, but Morocco have built progress on defensive strength, not conceding from open play and winning three straight matches without letting in a goal, so the semi-final shapes as a contest between the competition’s most dangerous attack and one of its most disciplined defences.
Chelle is considering a shift away from Nigeria’s usual front-foot style after
a demanding schedule, with the coach weighing up a deeper defensive block against the hosts, even though Nigeria have scored at least two goals in all five matches and lead the tournament for goals, expected goals and big chances created.
Explaining the possible change, Chelle told reporters: "Morocco is a strong team, and there will be pressure in front of the host nation, Chelle told reporters. I feel that my squad is tired, so I may have to change my approach. We might let Morocco have the ball and wait for them. We have seen that they struggle when they come up against a low block. I think we will start like that. We will try to hold on in the first half and then play our game in the second half. "
Nigeria’s attack has been among the most clinical in AFCON history, with 14 goals from an expected goals tally of 12.8 and 26 big chances created, and if Nigeria score at least twice again, they become the first side to manage two or more goals in six consecutive matches within a single edition of the tournament.
Morocco, hosting the Africa Cup of Nations for the first time since 1988, reach the semi-finals after knockout victories over Tanzania and Cameroon, and Regragui’s team now sits one win away from a first AFCON showpiece since 2004, despite facing criticism from some pundits and supporters who question perceived decisions favouring the host nation.
Certain television analysts and fans on social media have argued that match officials show Morocco leniency, pointing to penalty calls and handball decisions during this 2025 AFCON, yet organisers and coaches continue to stress that refereeing debates are common in major tournaments, both inside Africa and in European competitions.
Regragui rejected suggestions of conspiracies around Morocco’s route, stating: "It's always a shame to go down this path. They want to make people believe that matches are always won this way. Let's not kid ourselves, it's always been the case on the African continent to sow doubts and controversies. You journalists need to do your job. A penalty can be given one way in one match and not in another. A handball is called in one match and not in another. I watch a lot of matches because we have many players in Europe, and the controversies are the same everywhere, in Africa or in Europe. "
AFCON semi-final Nigeria vs Morocco: key players and scoring records
Ademola Lookman remains central to Nigeria’s hopes at the 2025 AFCON, as the forward has delivered six goals and five assists in just 11 tournament appearances, meaning Lookman has contributed directly to 11 goals, more than any other player across the last two Africa Cup of Nations editions.
Lookman is the only player since the start of the 2023 AFCON with at least five goals and five assists combined, and the Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah stage offers another chance to extend that record as Nigeria chase a ninth final appearance and attempt to reach back-to-back title matches for only the second time.
Morocco’s attacking focus is Brahim Diaz, who has scored in all five of Morocco’s games at the 2025 AFCON; the on-loan AC Milan midfielder already has five goals in this campaign, and only Vincent Aboubakar, with eight goals for Cameroon in 2022, has scored more in a single edition this century.
Diaz could become the first player to score in six different matches within one AFCON edition, and Ahmed Faras, with six goals, remains the only player to outscore Diaz for Morocco at the tournament, so another goal on Wednesday would move Diaz level with that long-standing national competition record.
AFCON semi-final Nigeria vs Morocco: history, trends and match prediction
Nigeria and Morocco have met five times at the Africa Cup of Nations, with Morocco winning three and Nigeria securing two victories, and only Algeria, with four wins, have beaten Nigeria more often at AFCON, while this will be their first tournament meeting since 2004.
The nations previously clashed in an AFCON semi-final in 1980, when Nigeria edged Morocco 1-0 before lifting the trophy for the first time; Nigeria later added titles in 1994 and 2013, but have not been crowned champions since defeating Burkina Faso in that 2013 final.
Nigeria are chasing a ninth AFCON final appearance and are aiming to reach consecutive finals for just the second occasion, after achieving that feat in 1988 and 1990, whereas Morocco have only reached the Africa Cup of Nations final once, losing the 2004 decider.
Both teams arrive at this 2025 AFCON semi-final without having fallen behind at any point in the tournament, although Nigeria have spent 64% of their match minutes in the lead, the highest share among all sides, while Morocco’s 50% figure is the third best, behind Nigeria and Senegal’s 52%.
| OPTA win probability – AFCON semi-final Nigeria vs Morocco | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Nigeria | 39.4% |
| Draw | 26.8% |
| Morocco | 33.8% |
Overall data suggests a tight contest, and the match prediction is for a draw after normal time, reflecting Nigeria’s superior attacking figures, Morocco’s strong defensive record, balanced historical head-to-head results and the influence of home support in a high-pressure 2025 Africa Cup of Nations semi-final environment.
