Gian Piero Gasperini is eagerly anticipating the renewal of his rivalry with Maurizio Sarri in the upcoming Derby della Capitale between Lazio and Roma. Gasperini has encountered Sarri 21 times in his career, with only a few managers like Massimiliano Allegri, Stefano Pioli, and Simone Inzaghi facing him more often. Sarri holds a slight edge with seven wins compared to Gasperini's six, alongside eight draws.
Last season, both coaches secured one victory each in their encounters. Matias Vecino's late goal led Lazio to a 3-2 win over Atalanta, but Gasperini's team avenged this loss with a 3-1 triumph thanks to Charles De Ketelaere's two goals. "It's an important and special match," Gasperini remarked about the derby. He acknowledged the intense
rivalry in the city and expressed hope for an exciting match that honours both coaches' philosophies.
Gasperini recently experienced his first defeat since succeeding Claudio Ranieri over the summer when Roma lost 1-0 to Torino at Stadio Olimpico. Despite this setback, Roma sits seventh in the early standings with six points from three games, while Lazio is positioned 12th. The defeat marked Roma's first goalless Serie A match since December's loss to Como.
Gasperini remains optimistic about his squad's performance. He stated, "I'm very happy with how everyone has worked over these first two months. " He emphasised the importance of building connections quickly and noted that results develop over time as teams improve and opponents become clearer.
For Lazio, Valentin Castellanos has been instrumental since joining in 2023-24. With him on the field, Lazio has won 51% of their Serie A matches, averaging 1.6 goals per game. Without him, their win rate drops to 25%, with an average of just 0.8 goals per match.
Roma's Matias Soule could make history by scoring in both of his first two derby matches against Lazio in Serie A during the three points for a win era. Only Vincenzo Montella and Edin Dzeko have achieved this feat before him.
Match Prediction: Draw
The upcoming clash marks the 163rd Rome derby in Serie A history. Roma leads with 58 wins compared to Lazio's 42, while there have been 62 draws overall. This fixture holds the record for most draws in Serie A history, making another draw a strong possibility according to Opta's supercomputer.
Roma remains unbeaten in their last four league derbies against Lazio (W2 D2), conceding just one goal during this period. The last time they avoided defeat in multiple derbies was between April 2013 and December 2016.
Lazio could face losing three of their first four games in a single Serie A campaign for only the third time in five decades if they don't secure a win soon. Despite recent struggles, they haven't lost any of their last eight home derbies against Roma (W4 D4), setting a record run for them.
The Opta Win Probability suggests a close contest: Lazio at 33.9%, Draw at 29.2%, and Roma at 36.9%.
