Heading into the final day of the 2025/26 Premier League season, the race for UEFA Champions League qualification has been blown wide open.
Unai Emery's Aston Villa lifted the Europa League trophy following a dominant 3-0 victory over SC Freiburg. While Villa fans are celebrating their first European silverware since 1982, the ripple effects of their triumph heavily impact the rest of the Premier League, especially Liverpool. Because England has secured a UEFA European Performance Spot (EPS) this season, the top five teams in the Premier League will qualify for the Champions League.
Currently sitting in fifth place, Liverpool's destiny is entirely in their own hands ahead of their final-day clash against Brentford at Anfield. Here are all the permutations
and scenarios for how the Reds can secure Champions League football next season.
The Current Standings
Before looking at the scenarios, here is how the relevant section of the Premier League table looks ahead of Sunday's kickoff:
4th: Aston Villa - 62 points (GD +6)
5th: Liverpool - 59 points (GD +10)
6th: Bournemouth - 56 points (GD +4)
Scenario 1: Liverpool Secures 5th Place (The Simplest Route)
Thanks to England's EPS, finishing fifth guarantees Champions League football. To lock down this spot without relying on results elsewhere, Liverpool simply needs to avoid defeat against Brentford at Anfield. A win or a draw takes them to at least 60 points, placing them mathematically out of reach for sixth-placed Bournemouth.
Scenario 2: Liverpool Leapfrogs into 4th Place
There is a highly realistic scenario where Liverpool finishes the season in fourth. For this to happen:
Liverpool must beat Brentford at Anfield.
Aston Villa must lose away to Manchester City.
If both of these results occur, Liverpool and Aston Villa will finish level on 62 points. Because Liverpool boasts a superior goal difference (+10 compared to Villa's +6), the Reds would leapfrog Unai Emery's side into fourth.
Scenario 3: The Nightmare Scenario (Dropping to 6th)
Could Liverpool actually miss out on the Champions League? Yes, but it would require a catastrophic sequence of events.
If Liverpool loses to Brentford, they will remain on 59 points. This opens the door for Bournemouth, who travel to Nottingham Forest. If Bournemouth wins, they will also reach 59 points. However, Liverpool currently has a six-goal advantage in goal difference.
For Liverpool to drop to sixth place and miss out on the Champions League entirely, they would need to lose to Brentford, and Bournemouth would need to secure a massive, high-scoring victory over Nottingham Forest to swing the goal difference (e.g., Liverpool losing 1-0 and Bournemouth winning 5-0).
If Liverpool falls to sixth, the EPS spot would remain with the fifth-placed team (Bournemouth), while Liverpool would be relegated to Thursday night UEFA Europa League football.
The math is incredibly favorable for the Reds. A single point against Brentford is all it takes to guarantee Champions League nights will return to Anfield next season. With a fully packed stadium ready to push them over the finish line, Liverpool is just 90 minutes away from achieving their European objective.
