Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain were standout teams in last season's Champions League, scoring 43 and 38 goals respectively. However, only PSG reached the final after defeating Inter Milan 5-0, while
Barcelona was eliminated by Inter with a 7-6 aggregate loss. Despite injuries affecting both squads, their upcoming league phase clash promises excitement and could signal which team might dominate Europe this season.
The Opta supercomputer favours Barcelona for the win, assigning them a 48.4% chance of victory compared to PSG's 29%. A draw is predicted in 22.6% of simulations. Both teams began their Champions League campaigns with wins; Barcelona defeated Newcastle United 2-1, while PSG triumphed over Atalanta 4-0. The supercomputer gives PSG an 11% chance to retain their title, slightly ahead of Barcelona's 10%.
PSG has historically struggled against Barcelona in major European competitions, winning five out of fifteen encounters compared to Barcelona's six victories. However, PSG has won their last two away games against Barcelona by identical 4-1 scorelines. This gives them a chance to become the first team to win three consecutive away matches against Barcelona in European competitions.
PSG will miss Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembele due to a hamstring injury sustained during international duty with France. Dembele had previously scored in both meetings against his former club, Barcelona. Meanwhile, Luis Enrique will face his former team for the fifth time as PSG coach. He led both clubs to treble victories in different seasons and is one of only two coaches to achieve this feat with multiple clubs.
Barcelona's Lamine Yamal is set to make an impact after finishing second in the Ballon d'Or voting behind Dembele. His father criticised the decision as "the biggest moral damage done to a human being. " Yamal returned from injury as a substitute in a recent LaLiga match against Real Sociedad and assisted Robert Lewandowski's winning goal just seconds after coming on.
Key Players: Lewandowski and Mendes
Robert Lewandowski recently equalled Neymar's record of 105 LaLiga goals for foreign players at Barcelona. However, he has struggled against PSG in the Champions League, scoring only once in five appearances against them. His goal ratio against PSG is his worst against any opponent in the competition.
Nuno Mendes has been crucial for PSG since last season, contributing significantly to their successful dribbles per game average—the highest among teams participating in the last two Champions League campaigns. Mendes matched Bradley Barcola with 30 successful dribbles during this period and excelled with five dribbles in their recent win over Atalanta.
PSG's Recent Form and Challenges
PSG has won their last four Champions League matches by a combined scoreline of 12-1, including two consecutive wins by nine goals overall. They aim to replicate their previous achievement of winning three consecutive games by four or more goals—a feat they accomplished between October and November 2017.
However, injuries have plagued Luis Enrique's squad recently. Captain Marquinhos is sidelined with a thigh injury, while Desire Doue and Joao Neves are also recovering from injuries. Vitinha and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia were substituted early during PSG's recent Ligue 1 victory over Auxerre due to potential fitness concerns.
Despite these challenges, PSG has managed well without Dembele since his move from Barcelona in August 2023. Their win ratio without him stands at an impressive 70.6%, slightly higher than when he plays (69.3%). With attacking options like Bradley Barcola, Goncalo Ramos, and Lee Kang-in available for selection alongside set-piece threats Illia Zabarnyi and Lucas Beraldo—who both scored from corners against Auxerre—PSG remains formidable.
As anticipation builds around this high-stakes encounter between two European heavyweights battling through adversity amid injury woes—it remains uncertain which side will emerge victorious at Montjuic Stadium come Wednesday night—but one thing is clear: fans can expect thrilling football action regardless!
