Napoli visit Cremonese on Sunday with confidence high after lifting the Supercoppa Italiana, yet recent away struggles keep this Serie A trip finely balanced. Opta rates Napoli as strong favourites, but Cremonese chase a landmark home run, while individual storylines around Rasmus Hojlund, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy add extra interest for supporters.
According to Opta’s model, Napoli hold a 58.5% chance of victory, compared with 18.2% for Cremonese and a 23.2% probability of a draw. Napoli have dominated this Serie A fixture historically, losing only two of 16 league meetings while winning eight. That record includes a 4-1 victory at Stadio Giovanni Zini in October 2022.
Napoli arrive from a successful Supercoppa Italiana campaign, having beaten
AC Milan in the semi-final before overcoming Bologna 2-0 in Monday’s final. That triumph delivered the club’s third Supercoppa Italiana title, and their second secured in normal time after the 1990 win, when Antonio Careca scored twice in a 5-1 victory against Juventus.
3 - #Napoli have won the third #SuperCoppaItaliana in their history, the second in a final played in regulation time after 1990, when Brazilian Antonio Careca scored a brace in a 5-1 victory against Juventus. Triumph. #NapoliBologna pic.twitter.com/Ny6RzlCEdZ OptaPaolo (@OptaPaolo) December 22, 2025
Rasmus Hojlund’s impact for Napoli is central to the build-up. The forward, on loan from Manchester United since the start of the season, has contributed seven goals and three assists in all competitions for the reigning Serie A champions. Hojlund also scored and assisted in the Supercoppa Italiana semi-final against AC Milan last week.
Christian Vieri believes that level of influence places Hojlund among the elite, and the opinion shapes discussion around Antonio Conte’s selection when Romelu Lukaku recovers from a thigh injury. Vieri expects a difficult decision for Conte, given Lukaku’s known link-up play and the need to manage both strikers’ minutes across Serie A and cup fixtures.
Vieri told La Gazzetta dello Sport: "I consider Hojlund as potentially one of the five best strikers in the world. He can score goals, but he knows how to attack deep and wear down defences. He has a strong left foot and is great with his head and his physicality. In short, he has everything. It's not easy to take his place away from him, but it has to be said that Lukaku knows how to make the rest of his teammates play well as well. They need both, butdeciding who plays is up to Conte alone. It's a great problem to have to solve. "
Napoli Serie A away record and Cremonese challenge
Despite the trophy lift, Napoli’s form away from home remains a concern. They have lost seven of their first 11 away fixtures in all competitions this season, their poorest travelling record since 2007-08, when defeat arrived in their 12th road game. Cremonese will try to exploit that weakness in front of home supporters.
Cremonese defeated Lecce in their previous Serie A match at home and now seek consecutive league home victories for the first time in 30 years. The team sit in mid-table yet view this clash as a chance to measure progress against one of Serie A’s strongest squads, knowing Napoli’s away issues create an opportunity if concentration levels stay high.
Napoli Serie A key players: Vardy and Neres to watch
Cremonese forward Jamie Vardy is chasing a personal milestone in this match. If Vardy scores on Sunday, the total in Europe’s top five leagues will reach 150 goals. Of those, 115 arrived after Vardy turned 30 in January 2017, with Cristiano Ronaldo, on 141, the only older player to record more during that period.
The fairytale hasn't ended, it's just entered a new chapter. Jamie Vardy is your @EASPORTSFC Player of the Month for November. Now on #FC26 #POTM #SerieA @easportsfcit pic.twitter.com/uAKRH79awP Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) December 11, 2025
On the Napoli side, David Neres has become crucial since October. Neres was slow to start the campaign but is now the only Serie A player involved in 10 goals in all competitions from that point, with six goals and four assists. The winger scored against Milan in the Supercoppa Italiana semi-final and hit two goals in the final against Bologna.
Napoli Serie A win probability and match outlook
The statistical outlook still leans towards Napoli, despite their away issues and Cremonese’s recent home success. Napoli’s deeper squad, attacking options in Hojlund, Lukaku and Neres, and their superior head-to-head Serie A record shape expectations that Conte’s side can manage the occasion and sustain the momentum gained from the Supercoppa Italiana triumph.
| Outcome | OPTA win probability |
|---|---|
| Cremonese win | 18.2% |
| Draw | 23.2% |
| Napoli win | 58.5% |
Both teams enter this Serie A meeting with clear targets; Cremonese chase a historic home sequence and Vardy’s milestone, while Napoli seek to turn Supercoppa Italiana success into stronger away form. With Opta numbers, recent history and individual narratives aligned, a Napoli win appears most likely, though Cremonese still present a serious test.
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