Mali face Senegal in the Africa Cup of Nations quarter-finals with contrasting momentum and expectations. Senegal arrive as strong favourites and have won three of four matches, while Mali squeezed through against Tunisia on penalties after a 1-1 draw. Opta gives Senegal a 50.7% win chance, with Mali on 25.7% and a draw at 23.7%.
Senegal are rated second favourites to lift AFCON by the Opta supercomputer, with a 17% title chance, behind Morocco on 23%. Mali’s prospects are rated lower at 5%, yet the team have been hard to beat. Since the start of AFCON 2021, Mali have lost just one match in 90 minutes, recording four wins and eight draws.
Mali’s campaign has been defined by tight contests, with four consecutive draws in normal time at this tournament.
Against Tunisia, Mali survived almost 70 minutes with 10 players after Woyo Coulibaly’s 26th-minute red card. The match ended 1-1, before Mali held their nerve to claim a 3-2 victory in the shootout.
Midfielder Lassana Coulibaly says Mali’s mindset can again offset any tactical or technical gap against Senegal. "Against Tunisia, we needed to show strong mentality as it was 10 against 11, he said. We will need thesame mentality against Senegal. We want to progress, and we feel we have nothing to lose. We are not the favourites, but with our mental andphysical strength, we feel we can win. "
Lassine Sinayoko has become central to Mali’s attacking threat at this edition of AFCON. Sinayoko has scored all three of Mali’s goals at the tournament and six of their last eight AFCON goals overall. Only Seydou Keita, with eight, and Frederic Kanoute, with seven, have more goals for Mali in the competition’s history.
For Senegal, Sadio Mane continues to influence almost every attacking move. Mane has either scored four goals or provided eight assists in 10 of the last 12 AFCON appearances. That gives Mane 19 goal involvements since debuting in 2015, with 10 goals and nine assists, the most by any player in that period.
Mane is also key to Senegal’s pressing game at AFCON 2025. Mane has forced 10 high turnovers, more than any other player in the competition. Three of those turnovers have led to a shot, matching Morocco’s Abde Ezzalzouli for the joint-highest total. Those numbers underline Mane’s work without the ball as well as in possession.
10Senegals Sadio Man (10) has recorded more high turnovers than any other player at the #TotalEnergiesAFCON2025, three of which have resulted in a shot, the joint-most along with Moroccos Abde Ezzalzouli. Busy. pic.twitter.com/A7bhWM8115OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) January 8, 2026
Mali vs Senegal AFCON quarter-finals historical record and form
This tie is only the second meeting between Mali and Senegal at AFCON. The first clash came in the 2004 group stage and finished 1-1. Senegal now target a sixth semi-final appearance and have progressed from their last two quarter-finals, in 2019 and 2021, after winning only two of their first seven last-eight ties.
Head coach Tom Saintfiet recognises the scale of the challenge, describing Senegal as Mali’s toughest opponent so far. "The eight teams who have qualified for the quarters are all the big footballing countries in Africa, but I think we are playing the best. The only team they've lost to over the last few years was Brazil. They even beat England. It's a stable team but also very strong, who score easily, who don't give up much and are very dangerous. "
Mali’s broader AFCON record since 2021 underlines steady resilience. From the start of that edition, only Senegal, with 10 wins, five draws and no losses in 90 minutes, have a stronger unbeaten record at the tournament. Mali, however, have not yet won inside regular time in the current competition and are chasing their first semi-final since 2013.
Senegal’s defensive platform supports their status as favourites. The team have conceded only six goals across their last 12 knockout matches at AFCON, keeping clean sheets in half of those games. In seven of their last 11 AFCON outings, Senegal have also scored more than two goals and could achieve that in three straight matches for the first time.
Pape Thiaw also stressed the emotional charge around the quarter-final, given the neighbours’ close links. "These are two brother countries, he said. Personally, I am half Senegalese and half Malian! A derby is meant to be won. It's up to us to put all the ingredients in place to go get qualification and go all the way. "
Senegal’s route to this stage has been more straightforward than Mali’s path. Thiaw’s side have dropped points only once at the tournament and reached the last eight with a 3-1 win over Sudan. By contrast, Mali’s last quarter-final appearance, in 2023, ended with defeat to eventual champions Ivory Coast after another tight contest.
Key numerical indicators for the Mali vs Senegal AFCON quarter-finals are shown below.
The quarter-final brings together Mali’s mental resilience and Senegal’s consistency in big AFCON matches. Senegal’s attack, led by Mane, and a tight defence support the higher Opta rating, while Mali rely on organisation and belief. With deep regional rivalry and past form on both sides, the match is set to be tense and closely fought.
