Lens Lead Focuses On Toulouse As Adrien Thomasson Urges Consistency

Toulouse welcome Ligue 1 leaders Lens in a key clash, with both teams entering the match in strong form. Lens sit one point clear of Paris Saint-Germain after 16 games, yet the Opta supercomputer still favours PSG for the title. Toulouse are eighth and undefeated in four matches across all competitions.

Lens resume their season after the winter break having won six consecutive league fixtures, their best run since 2022-23 under Franck Haise. That sequence has pushed Pierre Sage’s side to 12 victories from 16 league matches, the strongest record at this stage in the club’s history and a platform for a serious title challenge.

Despite Lens leading the table, Opta’s projections keep Paris Saint-Germain as clear favourites to retain the Ligue 1 crown.

The model gives PSG an 87.91% chance of finishing champions, compared with just 7.28% for Lens. Even so, every team that matched or bettered Lens’ current win total after 16 rounds ended on the final podium.

Adrien Thomasson expects opponents to treat Lens differently while they sit top of Ligue 1, especially with 18 games still to play. When asked about life as leaders, Thomasson said: "It changes everything, we feel it in relation to our opponents. When you play the league leaders, you have that extra level of motivation, and you want to show that you're capable of beating the best team in the league.

"It's up to us to be more focused. So far, we've managed it well since we've been in first place for three matchdays, but we can't let our guard down. Every team is dangerous, and that will be the case in Toulouse, so we'll have to maintain the same ambition and determination. Right now, our main focus is on beating Toulouse and keeping this top spot. There are 18 matches left. "

𝐺𝑎𝑔𝑛𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑑𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒deux jours du dplacement sur la pelouse du @ToulouseFC pour la Jde @Ligue1, le coach Pierre Sage et Adrien Thomasson ont rpondu aux questions des journalistes ce mercredi. Retour #ChaudRacing Club de Lens (@RCLens) December 31, 2025

Toulouse’s attack has been productive across 2025, reaching 51 league goals in 36 matches, their highest top-flight calendar-year total since 1985, when they hit 55 in 42 games. Yann Gboho leads their current Ligue 1 scoring chart with five goals and one assist, including a brace in a 3-0 win against Paris FC before the break.

Lens also carry plenty of threat in the final third. Odsonne Edouard has seven league goals, with only Mason Greenwood on 11, Esteban Lepaul on nine and Joaquin Panichelli, also on nine, scoring more in the division. Edouard has either scored or assisted in seven of his past 10 league appearances, providing nine direct goal contributions.

Toulouse vs Lens Ligue 1 prediction and Opta odds

Toulouse approach the match with confidence after collecting seven points from their last three Ligue 1 fixtures, with two wins and one draw, an improvement on their previous six games that produced one win, three draws and two losses. They are also unbeaten in their past four outings in all competitions, adding defensive and attacking belief.

Lens’ current six-game league winning streak is their second-longest in the 21st century, behind a run of seven straight victories under Franck Haise in 2022-23. However, the next test appears demanding, and the overall assessment points towards a balanced contest, with the match prediction set as a draw between the teams.

Opta’s match model reflects that balance, giving Toulouse a 37.6% chance of victory, Lens a 35.3% likelihood and the draw at 27.1%. The leaders may be chasing another win to protect their one-point edge over Paris Saint-Germain, but Toulouse’s form and attacking numbers suggest a tight Toulouse vs Lens Ligue 1 encounter.

Opta win probability	Percentage
Toulouse	37.6%
Draw	27.1%
Lens	35.3%