The league phase of this IPL season is entering its final stretch, yet playoff spots are still not completely settled. With 10 matches left, only LSG and MI are fully out, while eight teams remain in contention that could reshape the playoff line-up.
Two teams are almost safe on points alone, i.e., Gujarat Titans (GT) and Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB). GT cannot drop out of the top four on points unless net run rate turns against them. RCB are virtually through as well, with SRH close behind. RR, PBKS and CSK sit in the mid-pack, while KKR and DC need a huge swing of results.
IPL 2026: How Is Top Four Shaping Up?
Despite the setback on Saturday, GT are on course in the points race. Shubman Gill's side will finish in the top four on points in all likelihood. The 2022 IPL Champions
have an 80.5% chance of ending in the first or second position.
Defending IPL champions, RCB, are in an even stronger position this season. Bengaluru have a 99.69 % chance of ending in the top four and an 86.63% chance of a top-two berth. SRH is the only other team that follows this bandwagon with an 82% likelihood of a top-four finish on points and a 47.3% shot at the top two.
IPL 2026 Playoffs: Mid-Table Teams With An Outside Chance
RR's recent form has helped tighten the IPL playoff battle. RR now has a 59.1% chance of finishing in the top four on points and a 26.6% chance of occupying a top-two position. PBKS remain finely balanced, with a 50.2% chance of reaching the top four, but only 14.1% for a top-two finish.
Meanwhile, CSK's defeat on Friday has hurt their IPL playoffs push. CSK now hold a 34.8% chance of ending in the top four on points, and just a 19.5% chance of reaching the top two. Saturday's win has lifted KKR's hopes to 10% for the last four, though KKR cannot reach the top two. DC's prospects are slimmer still, with a 6.1% chance of making the playoffs and no route left to the top two.
IPL 2026 Playoffs Qualification Explained
These IPL playoffs projections come from modelling every one of the 1,024 possible results in the remaining 10 games. For each team, analysts counted how many scenarios placed that side in the top four or top two, including ties on points. Those scenario counts were then converted into percentages to describe each team's chances.
| Team | Chance of top four (points) | Chance of top two (points) |
|---|---|---|
| GT | 100% | 80.5% |
| RCB | 99.6% | 86.3% |
| SRH | 82% | 47.3% |
| RR | 59.1% | 26.6% |
| PBKS | 50.2% | 14.1% |
| CSK | 34.8% | 19.5% |
| KKR | 10% | 0% |
| DC | 6.1% | 0% |
Note: MI and LSG are already out of contention for a playoff spot.
While the IPL playoffs picture shows clear leaders and clear outsiders, ties on points and net run rate mean no team among the eight remaining contenders is mathematically safe or finished yet. The final 10 games will decide which probabilities hold and which teams fall away.
