Everton head to the City Ground for their final match of 2025 under scrutiny in attack, after a 0-0 draw with Burnley continued a run of three league games without a goal and left first-choice striker Thierno Barry and rival Beto facing fresh questions over their finishing ahead of facing Nottingham Forest.
Barry began the season as David Moyes’ preferred number nine, yet Beto started at Turf Moor, with Barry introduced in the second half as Everton searched for a breakthrough that never came despite both forwards drawing sharp saves from Burnley goalkeeper Martin Dubravka in a low-quality contest.
Everton now visit Nottingham Forest, who lost 2-1 to Manchester City on Sunday and sit 17th, but Moyes views Forest as far stronger than their position,
while Opta’s model still leans towards a home win and recent history shows Forest have ended each of the last two calendar years with league victories.
Forest defeated Everton 2-0 in their final league game last year and also won their last fixture of the calendar year in 2023, meaning they now chase a third straight year-ending success, something last achieved between 2008 and 2010, though Everton have won four of their last five Premier League away matches at the City Ground.
Moyes has one victory from five previous away league matches against Forest, drawing once and losing three times across spells with Preston North End, West Ham and Everton, while Forest manager Sean Dyche has lost the final Premier League match of the year in each of the last three seasons managed in December, including defeats with Burnley in 2021 and Everton in 2023 and 2024.
Everton’s recent league form across the year under Moyes is stronger than during Dyche’s previous spell, with the Toffees collecting 56 points in 2025 compared to 39 in 2024 under Dyche, who briefly started 2025 in charge at Goodison Park before departing after one match and making way for Moyes.
Despite that improvement, Everton’s current attacking numbers remain modest, with Barry and Beto sharing only two Premier League goals this season, and underlying metrics show Beto has underperformed expected goals by 3.4 while Barry is 1.8 below xG, placing both forwards among the 10th-worst underperformers in the division among players who have scored at least once.
Barry’s only Everton goal since joining from Villarreal arrived on 6 December against Nottingham Forest in a 3-0 home victory, and former Toffees striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin is now thriving for Leeds, increasing the pressure on Everton’s current centre-forwards as the team aim to avoid a fourth straight league game without scoring, something last experienced in November and December last year.
Asked about Barry’s recent form and chance to lead the line, Moyes offered support but also demanded more output in front of goal, saying: "Hes played well. Hes improved. Weve tried to give him a run of games to see what he can do. But ultimately our centre-forwards have got to score goals because if youre a number nine, having just one goal, and Betos only got one [league goal] too, thats not good enough. "
Moyes also stressed that Forest’s position near the bottom does not reflect their true strength, stating: "I dont think anybody should be kidded by Forest, Moyes said. They qualified for Europe last year, they were well up the league and played really well. Their squad is far better than their position suggests at the moment. "
Key individual battles could shape the match, with Forest forward Igor Jesus now involved in more goals in all competitions than any team-mate this season, recording seven goals and one assist after setting up a strike against Manchester City, though Igor Jesus is still waiting for a first run of consecutive Forest games with a direct goal contribution.
Everton winger Tyler Dibling is another player to watch after being trusted with only a second league start of the campaign at Turf Moor, where Dibling created two chances and completed four successful dribbles on the right flank, giving Moyes a possible attacking option again if selected for Tuesday’s meeting with Forest.
A threat down the right on Saturday. pic.twitter.com/7kpQIQ4XpCEverton (@Everton) December 29, 2025
Opta’s win-probability model gives Forest a narrow edge, reflecting their strong year-end record and Everton’s recent scoring issues, while still recognising the visitors’ solid away record in this fixture.
| Outcome | Win Probability |
|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 42.4% |
| Draw | 26.7% |
| Everton | 30.9% |
The meeting at the City Ground brings together an Everton side improving under Moyes yet short of goals and a Forest team placed 17th but recently strong in final fixtures, with individual form, xG trends and historic records suggesting a tight contest in which small attacking details and finishing could decide the outcome.
