West Ham face Brentford knowing survival in the Premier League is still in the balance, with Opta rating Nuno Espirito Santo's side at 47.8% to stay up. The Hammers sit two points above 18th-placed Tottenham and now meet Brentford on Saturday, while the Opta supercomputer gives Spurs a 32.7% chance of avoiding relegation.
Recent results have shifted West Ham from deep trouble to a position of slight control, though the margin is narrow. Nuno Espirito Santo's team are two points clear of the bottom three with four league fixtures left, and confidence has grown after a late 2-1 win over Everton at London Stadium.
Opta's model also offers a clear view of the match itself, favouring Brentford at home. The Bees are assigned a 54.3% chance of victory,
with the draw at 23.5% and West Ham at 22.2%. Historical data and recent form both influence those probabilities, despite West Ham's improved results under Nuno Espirito Santo.
West Ham's momentum has come from a strong 13-game league spell, which has produced 22 points. That run, built on six wins, four draws and three defeats, has taken the team from seven points below safety to two points above the drop zone. The late success against Everton, sealed by Callum Wilson in stoppage time, underlined that change.
Nuno Espirito Santo stressed mentality after that match, urging West Ham to maintain belief across the final four fixtures. "We knew it was going to be tough until the end. It was important we keep believing, fighting until the last minute," Nuno told BBC Sport. "That is something we have in our character and that is positive for us. It is going to be until the end – keep fighting, keep believing. Tough one, but we are on our path. "
Midfielder Tomas Soucek, who also scored against Everton, described how the recent upturn has changed the mood in the dressing room. "It's been a lot better. Obviously, we've been a bit disappointed with a few games, but we're in a better place now, and we have to keep it going and manage it," Soucek added. "We need to keep enjoying our football, getting results, and we know that, as it stands, things are in our hands. We have four games left, and as everyone says, it's four finals. But, we just have to take each one as it comes. "
Brentford vs West Ham Premier League key players and attacking data
Jarrod Bowen remains central to West Ham's attacking threat heading into the Brentford clash. Bowen provided two assists against Everton and is now only two short of becoming the first West Ham player to reach 50 in the Premier League. The England international has set up seven goals in the last seven league games and has 10 assists this season, with only Bruno Fernandes ahead on 19.
Brentford rely heavily on Igor Thiago in attack, but the numbers show a drop in London derbies. Of Thiago's 21 Premier League goals this season, only one has come against London opposition. His shot conversion rate in those derbies is 5% from 21 attempts, compared with 36% against non-London teams, where Thiago has scored 20 goals from 55 shots.
The striker will also want to respond after a difficult night at Old Trafford against Manchester United. Thiago had four shots in that 2-1 defeat, did not hit the target, and missed one Opta-defined big chance. Those wasted openings were punished by goals from Casemiro and Benjamin Sesko, despite Brentford creating several good situations.
Brentford vs West Ham Premier League recent results and derby records
Brentford's European ambitions suffered in that loss to Manchester United, although the performance gave interim head coach Andrews encouragement for the run-in. Brentford produced 12 shots, four on target, for an expected goals figure of 1.17. Manchester United managed 11 efforts, four on target, with an xG total of 1.36, before Mathias Jensen struck an 87th-minute consolation.
Andrews highlighted the effort and structure of Brentford's display despite the result. "Bitterly disappointed. Overall, our performance was very good," Andrews said. "As a collective, we went toe-to-toe with a good side and controlled large parts of the game. The second goal was a bitter one to swallow. I have to say the attitude of the group was really impressive. "
History in this fixture points towards Brentford, particularly at home in the Premier League. The Bees have won three of their four home league meetings with West Ham, with the other ending 1-1 last season. Overall, West Ham have lost seven of nine top-flight matches against Brentford, winning once and drawing once, giving the Hammers a 78% loss rate against this opponent.
Brentford's broader London derby record, however, has been less convincing in recent seasons. The Bees have won only two of their last 15 Premier League derbies, drawing six and losing seven, although both victories came against West Ham. At home, Brentford are winless in nine London derbies, drawing six and losing three, since a 2-1 success over Crystal Palace in August 2024.
Home form more generally has also been mixed for Brentford across recent weeks. They have not won any of their last six league fixtures on home soil, drawing four and losing two, with each of the latest three finishing all square. The last time Brentford drew four successive home league matches came between March and April 2021 in the Championship.
West Ham have improved in London derbies under Nuno Espirito Santo, which offers some balance against the historical record with Brentford. The Hammers have earned two wins, one draw and one defeat in their last four league derbies, taking as many points in those four matches as in their previous 14 combined. With four fixtures remaining and survival still in reach, both Brentford and West Ham enter this meeting under pressure, yet encouraged by recent performances.
