EFL Cup Semi-Final: Newcastle Face Disadvantage With Home First Leg Against Manchester City

Newcastle United host Manchester City on Tuesday in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final, with a place at Wembley on March 22 at stake. The tie decides who will defend the trophy against either Arsenal or Chelsea. Newcastle enter as holders and nine-game winners in the competition, but OPTA numbers still lean towards City.

Manchester City are given a 41.6% chance of victory in the tie by OPTA, compared to 32.9% for Newcastle and 25.5% for the draw. City have progressed from their last six EFL Cup semi-finals and lifted the trophy each time, last falling at this stage in 2011-12 to Liverpool.

Newcastle’s EFL Cup semi-final record is perfect, with three qualifications from three ties, the best such rate in the competition. Howe’s side also

reached the final in 2022-23. City, by contrast, have only been eliminated at the semi-final stage twice before, by Tottenham in 1971-72 and Blackburn Rovers in 2002-03.

The Magpies have also enjoyed recent success against City in the tournament. Newcastle eliminated the Citizens 2-0 in October 2014 and again 1-0 in September 2023. In the Premier League this season, Newcastle also beat City 2-1, and have not defeated them twice in one campaign since 1983-84.

Howe’s team know how to manage this stage after last season’s semi-final against Arsenal. Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon scored in a 2-0 first-leg triumph at the Emirates Stadium. Jacob Murphy and Gordon then struck again at St James’ Park, securing another 2-0 win and safe passage to Wembley.

Recent patterns in the EFL Cup suggest playing away first may bring an edge. Since 2021-22, only Liverpool in 2023-24, against Fulham, have made the final after hosting the first leg. Five of the last six semi-finals have been won by sides with the second leg at home, a slight concern for Newcastle.

Howe, though, accepts the situation and stressed how crucial the opening game on Tyneside could be. "The natural preference is for the home game to be the second leg, just because you have a clear understanding of what you need to do and you have the home crowd behind you, but it's not like that this time. We need to use the home crowd to our advantage in the first game and try to do everything to try and impose ourselves on the tie. We really enjoyed the two-legged semi-final format last year. This is going to be a totally different challenge, though. City are the hardest team in the country to play over two legs. Pep [Guardiola] will have something ready for us tactically and we will have to be at our best to get through. "

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Newcastle vs Manchester City EFL Cup: Form, fatigue and injury concerns

Newcastle’s build-up has been intense after 120 minutes plus penalties against Bournemouth in the FA Cup on Saturday. That 3-3 draw at St James’ Park ended with a shoot-out win but also cost Howe another defender. Tino Livramento suffered an injury during that match, adding to an already stretched squad.

Howe highlighted that Newcastle’s ability to reinforce during the January window is restricted, with Profit and Sustainability Rules limiting options. "Regarding transfers, everybody is fully supportive. I think the problem for us is PSRI don't think there is any issue with anyone saying we can't do this and we can't do that," Howe said. "It's more about what we can do, not what we can't do. The key thing for us to consider is business now versus business in the summer. It's value for money now, value for money in the summer, and signing the right player. If you sign the wrong player, you are carrying that for a three-, four- or five-year contract. Are the right players available in January? There is a lot to discuss and a lot to consider for our short-term needs against the long-term decisions of the football club. "

Newcastle vs Manchester City EFL Cup: Players to watch and creative threats

Newcastle’s attack could again lean on Yoane Wissa, who has begun to settle after early fitness problems. Wissa scored in the previous EFL Cup round, a 2-1 victory over Fulham, and also netted against Burnley in Newcastle’s last Premier League match of 2025. Wissa now has five goals in his last six EFL Cup starts, including games for Brentford.

For Manchester City, Rayan Cherki has been a key figure in this season’s EFL Cup campaign. Cherki has two goals and one assist from two appearances, with no remaining player involved in more goals. The French midfielder scored a powerful long-range strike against Brentford in the quarter-finals and has also impressed in the Premier League.

Cherki’s creativity has stood out in league play, where statistics show strong output. Cherki has averaged 3.42 chances created per 90 minutes this season in the top flight. That rate edges Bruno Fernandes, who sits at 3.28, among players with at least 270 minutes played, underlining Cherki’s influence in advanced areas.

Newcastle vs Manchester City EFL Cup: Prediction, records and win probabilities

Newcastle’s nine-match winning run in the EFL Cup places the club close to historic streaks. Only Liverpool, with 11 wins between 1994 and 1995, and Arsenal, with 10 between 1987 and 1988, have enjoyed longer sequences excluding shoot-outs. A tenth straight success here would move Howe’s team alongside those past runs.

Yet City have developed a habit of knocking out the holders when they meet. They removed Birmingham City with a 2-0 victory in September 2011 and then beat Liverpool 3-2 in December 2022. Those results, combined with City’s six successive semi-final qualifications, support the OPTA view that Guardiola’s side enter as slight favourites.

Across the tie, the data suggests City have a narrow edge but Newcastle carry strong cup momentum and past wins over these opponents. With recent home success against City, a passionate St James’ Park crowd, and proven semi-final experience, Howe’s side approach the first leg with belief, despite fatigue, injuries and limited January room for change.

Outcome	OPTA win probability
Newcastle United	32.9%
Manchester City	41.6%
Draw	25.5%