The Premier League 2025-26 title race has experienced a significant shift following the November international window, with some traditional powerhouses facing unexpected setbacks.
Notably, four of the 'Big Six'-Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, and Manchester United-all dropped points in Gameweek 12, reshaping the competition at the top of the table.
Premier League Title Contenders
Opta's supercomputer projects Arsenal as the frontrunners to clinch the Premier League title this season, assigning them a commanding 76.65% chance of ending their championship drought. Arsenal are expected to accumulate approximately 81 points, which would be a solid 10 points clear of the predicted runners-up. Manchester City, despite a heavy investment of £179.4 million ($235.1 million)
during the summer, are forecasted to finish second with around 71 points, showing no points improvement from last season. However, a recent loss to Newcastle United diminishes their title hopes further, reducing their winning probability to just 13.64%.
Chelsea have risen as the third contender in this tight title race. The Blues look set to secure a third-place finish, which would be their best Premier League standing since the 2021-22 season. Opta predicts Chelsea will acquire about 65 points by season's end, although this would be four fewer points than their tally last season despite their Club World Cup success recently.
Battle for Champions League Qualification
Liverpool, despite their current struggles and a recent heavy defeat at home to Nottingham Forest, are expected to remain in the top four, thus qualifying for next season's Champions League. They are projected to finish fourth with around 64 points-their lowest point total for a top-four finish since the 2015-16 campaign.
However, the competition for Champions League spots is becoming fiercely competitive. Aston Villa and Crystal Palace are closely trailing Liverpool, with projections pointing to finishes in fifth and sixth respectively. Brighton, Newcastle, and Bournemouth also remain in pursuit but are more likely to secure Europa League places if the current trends continue.
Manchester United currently sit 10th after a defeat to Everton and are predicted to finish around 10th place with 55 points, marking an improvement over last season's points tally of 42 but still falling short of European qualification. Their current position is two places ahead of Liverpool due to goal difference, but their season prospects place them out of contention for European football.
