Aston Villa And Arsenal Battle In Title Race As Opta Simulations Predict Outcome

The final Premier League matchday of 2025 centres on Arsenal versus Aston Villa at Emirates Stadium, with the title race firmly in focus. The Opta supercomputer currently gives Arsenal a 64.9% chance of finishing as champions, ahead of Manchester City on 26.7%, while Aston Villa remain outsiders but significant contenders at 7.6% after 18 matchdays.

Arsenal’s presence in this battle for the crown fits pre-season expectations, with many forecasting a strong response after near misses. Villa’s rise, however, has been far less predictable. Unai Emery’s team now arrive in north London chasing a club-record winning run, knowing victory against a former employer could further reshape the picture at the top.

Opta’s model also favours Arsenal in the match

itself. After 10,000 simulations, the Gunners win 58.6% of scenarios, with Villa successful in 19.8% and 21.5% ending as draws. Those numbers sit against a recent record that leans towards Villa, including December’s reverse fixture, when Emiliano Buendia scored late in a 2-1 win.

Villa now have the chance to complete a Premier League double over Arsenal again. They achieved this in 2020-21 and 2023-24 and had previously only done it once in the competition’s first season, 1992-93. The Midlands club are also unbeaten in their last two league trips to Arsenal, winning 2-0 in April 2024 and drawing 2-2 in January last season.

Recent calendar-year patterns provide a different angle. Arsenal have taken three points in their final league match in four of the last five years, losing only 2-1 at Fulham on 31 December 2023. Villa’s record over their last 13 final league games is weaker, featuring just two wins, six draws and five defeats.

Mikel Arteta addressed Arsenal’s situation at Monday’s pre-match press conference, stressing the need for January transfer activity after a difficult first half of the season. Long absences have affected Martin Odegaard, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus and Gabriel Magalhaes, while Ben White, Riccardo Calafiori, Cristhian Mosquera and Jurrien Timber have all suffered more recent injuries.

Arteta has already used 24 different players in the league this campaign. Only West Ham, Nottingham Forest, Sunderland, Wolves, Brighton and Manchester United have used more. Gabriel Magalhaes’ early return during Saturday’s 2-1 win over Brighton was therefore a major boost, helping steady a defence that has often needed reshaping at short notice.

Numbers underline Magalhaes’ value. Since the start of the 2023-24 season, Arsenal have won 68.4% of league games with Magalhaes involved, taking 52 victories from 76 matches. Without the Brazilian centre-back, that figure drops to 50%, with nine wins recorded from 18 games, highlighting how important availability is for Arteta’s system.

Defensive depth remains stretched, though. Timber, White and Mosquera are already sidelined, and Calafiori picked up an injury in the warm-up before facing Brighton. Declan Rice then filled in at right-back, recording a team-high 76 touches, three interceptions and four ball recoveries. Arsenal now wait to discover which defenders can feature against Villa.

Villa have their own issues, with first-choice right-back Matty Cash suspended alongside midfielder Boubacar Kamara. Arsenal’s attack has been less hit by injuries, yet output has dipped. Three of their last four home league goals have been opposition own goals, two against Wolves and one versus Brighton, which adds pressure on the forwards.

Viktor Gyokeres endured another frustrating outing versus Brighton, failing to score from three shots with a combined expected goals value of 0.6. Bukayo Saka also drew a blank despite seven attempts, the highest total by an Arsenal player without scoring since Saka had the same number of shots against Leicester City in 2024.

Arsenal vs Aston Villa Premier League form and historical streaks

Emery returns to Emirates Stadium with a chance to shape history for Villa and for personal records. This will be Emery’s third away league match against Arsenal since leaving in November 2019, with one win and one draw so far. No former Arsenal manager has previously gone three away league games without defeat after departing the club.

Villa’s current momentum is striking. They are on an 11-match winning run in all competitions, matching their club record. Previous sequences of 11 consecutive wins came in September 1897 and March 1914. Eight of those current victories are in the Premier League, their longest league winning streak since a run of nine between October and December 1910.

There is still a gap to the longest such sequences in Premier League history. Liverpool and Manchester City have both posted 18 straight league wins, and there have been 27 longer winning runs than Villa’s in the competition. Across all competitions, three more Villa victories would bring the second-longest Premier League-era streak, behind Manchester City’s 21 wins in 2020-21.

That target would also move Villa beyond Arsenal’s 13-match all-competitions winning run from 2002. The context shows how far Emery’s side have come. After matchday five this season, Villa sat 18th without a win, collecting three draws and two defeats. Since then, they have taken 12 victories and 36 points, more than any other team in the division.

Arsenal vs Aston Villa Premier League players to watch

Arsenal’s key attacking focus could again fall on Eberechi Eze, who has strong numbers against Villa. Eze has contributed five goal involvements from four home league starts versus Villa, all for Crystal Palace between May 2021 and February 2025, scoring twice and providing three assists, and delivering at least one assist in three of those four starts.

Eze also has a curious record in final league games of a calendar year. Eze has scored in his team’s last Premier League match of the year in 2022, 2023 and 2024, all for Crystal Palace, against Bournemouth, Brentford and Southampton respectively. Only Dimitar Berbatov, with five, and Harry Kane, with four, have managed this across four straight years.

For Villa, Ollie Watkins arrives in form and with a personal milestone. Watkins came off the bench to score twice in Villa’s 2-1 win over Chelsea on Saturday, and this match falls on Watkins’ 30th birthday. Since the 2020-21 season, only Erling Haaland, with 24, has scored more than Watkins’ 18 Premier League goals in London away matches.

Watkins’ season has contained spells in and out of the starting XI, yet current circumstances hand a clear opportunity. With Villa chasing a record streak and eyeing the title race, the forward has a strong platform to reinforce Watkins’ claim as Emery’s main centre-forward option and to influence another major result in the capital.

The meeting at Emirates Stadium therefore carries importance well beyond the three points at stake. Arsenal seek to protect a strong title probability while managing significant injuries, and Villa chase a record-breaking run and another double over Arsenal. Opta’s projections favour the hosts, but recent head-to-head results and Villa’s surge ensure a finely balanced contest.