Arsenal approach the second leg against Atletico Madrid believing Emirates Stadium can drive a Champions League breakthrough, with Martin Zubimendi convinced the home support will prove crucial. The tie is level after a 1-1 draw in Madrid, yet Opta’s model gives Arsenal a 56% chance to progress, ahead of a draw at 23.7% and Atletico at 20.3%.
That confidence grows after Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Fulham, which moved Mikel Arteta’s side six points clear of Manchester City in the Premier League title race. Despite intense domestic pressure, Arsenal remain unbeaten in this Champions League season, and players sense the moment, with expectations high for a decisive night in north London.
Zubimendi underlined how the build-up at Emirates Stadium shapes
the squad’s mindset before major European fixtures. "Playing at the Emirates on a European night is different. I think that even in the days leading up to it, you can feel the atmosphere building," said the Spaniard in an interview with Arsenal's official website. "Once you get to the stadium, the atmosphere is incredible. You can really sense that desire to win this Champions League that everyone wants so much, so I think that the semi-final [second leg] is going to be incredible. "
Earlier this campaign, Arsenal had been competing in four competitions, yet hopes of a clean sweep faded. Arteta’s team lost the EFL Cup final to Manchester City and later exited the FA Cup against Southampton. A brief spell of poor league results then allowed Manchester City to tighten the title race, increasing pressure across all fronts.
Zubimendi stressed that Arsenal’s response has centred on reliable performances rather than panic. "The season has been all about consistency; every match counts," he added. "It doesn't matter to us where we're playing or who we're facing. I'm happy about that because we've been really focused for every match and that's not been easy. "
The midfielder also pointed to the club’s evolution in Europe over several seasons. "I think Arsenal have gone from strength to strength in this competition in the last few years, quarter-finals, semi-finals last year. So it's clear that we're making good progress and there's no reason [for that to stop]. " Those stages, Zubimendi feels, have prepared Arsenal for another step.
Arsenal Champions League key players and records
Viktor Gyokeres is again central to Arsenal’s attacking plans after scoring in the first leg. The forward can become only the third player to net in both legs of a Champions League semi-final for a Premier League side, following Sadio Mane for Liverpool and Riyad Mahrez for Manchester City, whose doubles came against Villarreal, Roma and Paris Saint-Germain.
Atletico Madrid rely on Antoine Griezmann’s experience as the Spanish club chase another final. Griezmann could make a 128th and final appearance in major European competition, adding to 127 games that already rank fourth among French players, behind Karim Benzema on 152, Thierry Henry on 135 and Claude Makelele on 130.
Griezmann’s scoring record is also significant for Atletico’s hopes. The forward sits on 50 goals in major European competition, placing Griezmann among four French players to reach that mark, alongside Benzema with 90, Kylian Mbappe with 78 and Henry with 58. Atletico will look to that pedigree as they try to overturn Arsenal’s advantage at Emirates Stadium.
Julian Alvarez gives Atletico another major threat in attack, based on Champions League numbers. Alvarez has contributed 34 goals or assists in 2,710 minutes, averaging one every 80 minutes, with 25 goals and nine assists in the competition. Among strikers with at least 20 goal involvements, only Erling Haaland has a superior ratio, with one contribution every 74 minutes.
Frimmy was all of us in this moment pic.twitter.com/405MUmF694Arsenal (@Arsenal) May 4, 2026
Arsenal Champions League history and Atletico challenge
Recent European form strongly supports Opta’s forecast in Arsenal’s favour. Arteta’s side have suffered only two defeats across their last 23 Champions League fixtures, winning 17 and drawing four, with both losses coming against eventual champions PSG in last season’s semi-final. This campaign’s record stands at 13 matches unbeaten, with ten victories and three draws.
Another positive result would set a new club landmark. Arsenal have never completed a run of 14 consecutive European Cup or Champions League games without defeat. Reaching the final would also end a long wait, as Arsenal last appeared in the competition’s showpiece match in 2006, against Barcelona in Paris.
If Arsenal return to the final, the gap would mirror historic intervals for other clubs. The 20-year span for an English side would be the longest since Liverpool’s return in 2005, while across all teams, it would be the biggest interval since Atletico in 2014, when Atletico ended a 40-year absence from European Cup or Champions League finals.
Atletico aim for a third Champions League final under Diego Simeone after appearances in 2014 and 2016. Only Alex Ferguson with Manchester United and Marcello Lippi with Juventus have taken the same club to more finals, each reaching four. Simeone’s team, though, must overturn a difficult record away to English opposition.
Atletico have lost six of their last seven Champions League away matches in England, winning only once. They have also been beaten on each of their last four such trips, including a 4-0 defeat at Emirates Stadium in October 2025, which remains a joint-heaviest loss for Atletico in the European Cup or Champions League, alongside five other four-goal defeats.
Arsenal’s hopes rest on combining strong recent European results, an unbeaten campaign and a powerful Emirates Stadium atmosphere with contributions from Gyokeres and other key players. Atletico counter with the experience of Griezmann, Alvarez and Simeone’s record, yet the statistics and current form leave Arsenal entering this decisive semi-final as clear favourites.
