Arsenal are leading the Premier League title race as they prepare for a significant North London derby. Despite their position, the Gunners are feeling the pressure after a 2-2 draw with Sunderland, which
reduced their lead over Manchester City from six to four points. Injuries are also a concern, with Gabriel Magalhaes potentially sidelined after an injury while playing for Brazil.
Tottenham's season under Thomas Frank has been inconsistent, performing better away than at home. They currently sit fifth in the league standings. As Arsenal and Tottenham prepare for their first clash of the season, Opta data provides insights into key storylines and players to watch.
Mikel Arteta hoped the international break would help Arsenal recover injured players. However, they return with more injuries than before. Concerns remain over Viktor Gyokeres, Martin Odegaard, and Gabriel Martinelli, while Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus are long-term absentees. Gabriel's potential absence due to an adductor injury could significantly impact Arsenal's defence.
Gabriel has been crucial for Arsenal since his Premier League debut in September 2020. He has scored 18 goals, five more than any other defender during this period. His presence is vital for Arsenal's set-piece success, having scored nine goals with his head since 2022-23.
Spurs have struggled at home but excelled away this season. They have taken 13 points on the road, scoring 12 goals and conceding only three. This performance contrasts sharply with their home form, where they've managed just five points from five games.
Frank's team averages the fifth-highest possession share at home but struggles to break down defences. Away from home, they play more effectively on the counterattack. Players like Richarlison and Mohammed Kudus could exploit Arsenal if they dominate possession.
Key Players to Watch
For Arsenal, Martin Zubimendi will be crucial in providing defensive support amid injuries. He has completed 445 passes under pressure this season, second only to Elliot Anderson of Nottingham Forest (492). Maintaining control will be vital if key players are absent.
Tottenham will look to Mohammed Kudus as a potential derby hero in the absence of Harry Kane and Son Heung-min. Richarlison is another player to watch; he averages more shots per game than any other Spurs player this season.
Historical Context
Arsenal have dominated recent North London derbies, winning five of their last six Premier League matches against Tottenham. They have also won their last three encounters consecutively. Tottenham have struggled historically at Arsenal's ground, winning just once in their last 32 visits.
Their lone victory came in November 2010 when they overturned a two-goal deficit to win 3-2. Gareth Bale, Rafael van der Vaart, and Younes Kaboul were instrumental in that comeback.
The Opta supercomputer predicts a strong chance of victory for Arsenal in Sunday's match-up with a 69% win probability. Spurs' chances stand at just 13.7%, while there's a 17.3% likelihood of a draw.
The supercomputer also suggests that Arsenal's title hopes dropped slightly after their draw with Sunderland but remain higher than Manchester City's chances at 22.4%. Tottenham have only a 9.8% chance of finishing in the top four this season.
This upcoming derby promises excitement as both teams aim to assert dominance in North London amidst contrasting fortunes and challenges.
