Pep Guardiola insists Manchester City’s title challenge feels unchanged, despite Arsenal moving close to the Premier League trophy and Opta giving City only an 11.3% chance. Arsenal are five points clear after beating West Ham, yet City still see Crystal Palace at the Etihad on 13 May as the next decisive step.
Arsenal know that victories at home to relegated Burnley and away at Crystal Palace would seal a first league crown in 22 years. Manchester City host Palace in their game in hand on Wednesday, then quickly turn attention to Chelsea in the FA Cup final on Saturday as the schedule intensifies.
Guardiola was asked how the pressure had shifted after Leandro Trossard’s 83rd-minute winner at the London Stadium. The manager stressed that his mindset
remains fixed on performance. "The same as one day, two days, a week ago, two weeks ago. it's the same. Crystal Palace [is my focus focus], thinking about what I have to do, to always learn from my career as a manager, what you can control, what you've not done better this season. We are still fighting. "
The City manager was also questioned about the stoppage-time controversy at West Ham, where Callum Wilson’s late effort was ruled out after a four-minute VAR check for a foul by Pablo on David Raya. "It's not the right person to ask, Guardiola responded. What was said, was said in the past. It is a question for the referees, what they decide, not me. VAR has not been installed in the last weekend, it has been here for many years. We adapt; we know it. Everybody knows it. "
Crystal Palace influence this title race twice, starting at the Etihad and then visiting Arsenal on 24 May, only three days before the Conference League final against Rayo Vallecano. Guardiola still expects Oliver Glasner’s side to compete at full intensity in both matches, regardless of the extra European commitment.
Guardiola recalled other late-season fixtures as a warning against assuming any drop in effort. "They're so professional. Crystal Palace will play top against us. We saw Leeds yesterday against Spurs, even being out of the relegation battle so they are in the Premier League again, how they competed. We played Aston Villa here in the past, when they had nothing to play for, and how difficult it was. I am sure they will do their best, knowing that they have the final. "
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace form guide and key players
Glasner views the run-in positively after Palace’s safety was confirmed by West Ham’s defeat to Arsenal. "We are enjoying the final weeks of the season, Glasner said. Most of the players are available and feeling well, now we have four great games left to play. " The coach wants freedom without losing sharpness before the Conference League showpiece.
Jeremy Doku’s recent numbers underline his importance for Manchester City against Crystal Palace. Doku has had seven goal involvements in the last six matches in all competitions, with five goals and two assists, matching his previous 24-game total of one goal and six assists. Each of Doku’s last three league goals, against Everton twice and Brentford once, has either levelled the score or given City the lead.
Crystal Palace’s main attacking threat is Jean-Philippe Mateta, who sits on 49 Premier League goals and is chasing Wilfried Zaha’s club mark of 68. However, Mateta’s scoring pattern is weighted towards home matches. Only 17 of those 49 strikes, and two of the 11 this season, have come away from Selhurst Park.
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace records, trends and prediction
Opta’s prediction model still strongly leans towards Manchester City victory against Crystal Palace, despite the wider title picture favouring Arsenal. City are unbeaten in eight league meetings with Palace since losing 2-0 at the Etihad in October 2021, winning five and drawing three, although Palace have managed exactly two goals in each of their last four league visits.
Palace’s scoring record in those away fixtures has not delivered many points, with one win, one draw and two defeats. Tottenham remain the only visiting side to score two or more in five straight matches at the Etihad. Since losing 2-0 to Spurs in this season’s opening home league game, City have gone 16 home league matches unbeaten, winning 13 and drawing three, and scoring first in every one.
Guardiola’s team also have a strong record under the Etihad lights. They are unbeaten in 23 Premier League games kicking off at 7pm or later since a 1-0 defeat at Aston Villa in December 2023, although five of their eight evening league fixtures in 2026 have finished level, with three wins.
The Opta supercomputer still rates City as clear favourites on Wednesday and expects the defending champions to keep pressure on Arsenal. There is likely to be tension among home supporters, yet the data, recent form and historical record all support a Manchester City win over Crystal Palace to extend the title race further.
| Team | Opta win probability |
|---|---|
| Manchester City | 78.3% |
| Crystal Palace | 8.7% |
| Draw | 13% |
Midweek football under the Etihad lights #AsahiSuperDry pic.twitter.com/PXk2u0Ea50Manchester City (@ManCity) May 11, 2026
