Everton approach Saturday’s trip to Brighton viewing the coming weeks as a pivotal stretch in their season, with Opta modelling giving Fabian Hurzeler’s side the edge despite recent struggles. Kiernan
Dewsbury-Hall believes a strong run now could significantly shape where Everton eventually finish in the Premier League table.
The Opta supercomputer gives Brighton a 51.8% chance of victory at the Amex Stadium, compared with 23.6% for Everton, with a 24.6% likelihood of a draw. That projection comes even though Brighton have won only one of their last 10 Premier League fixtures, taking eight points in that sequence.
Brighton are predicted to edge this contest, and a home win would end a poor recent league run against Everton. Brighton are winless in their last five home Premier League meetings with the Toffees, drawing twice and losing three times, since a 3-2 victory in October 2019.
Everton took a 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture in August and now aim to complete a league double over Brighton for only the second time, after the 1980-81 campaign. Brighton’s current slump means only Burnley, with five points, and Wolves, with six points, have collected fewer points since the start of December.
Despite that form, the underlying data still leans towards Hurzeler’s team on home soil. Everton’s attacking numbers help explain that forecast. Only Burnley, with 68, and Wolves, with 70, have recorded fewer shots on target than Everton’s 72 in the Premier League this season.
Everton are averaging just 3.1 shots on target per league match. That figure is their lowest across any Premier League season on record, dating back to 1997-98. Those issues in front of goal contrast with Everton’s defensive strength away from home under David Moyes.
Everton have kept five clean sheets in their last six Premier League away fixtures, winning four, drawing one and losing one. They could secure three consecutive away shutouts in the competition for the first time since April and May 2021, and three straight away wins without conceding for the first time since December 2008.
That resilience has helped lift Everton to 10th place, following Monday’s 1-1 draw with Leeds United. Everton trailed to James Justin’s opener but responded through Thierno Barry. The result extended their unbeaten league run to two matches ahead of a sequence Dewsbury-Hall views as crucial.
Dewsbury-Hall outlined the importance of this period, saying on Everton’s website: "We've got a lot of important games coming up, a lot of winnable games, and if you look at the league table, we could be sitting in a very favourable position if we get some good results. That's two games unbeaten now and the next four or five games are massive for us. It can really put a stamp on where we want to finish this year. We've got a lot of players back now and most of the squad's pretty much fit. A lot of players have played a lot of minutes now because of injuries, so people are wanting to try and play for their place. "
Everton had been hit hard by injuries early in 2026. Manchester City loanee Jack Grealish is still expected to be unavailable until at least April, but several other key players have returned. Dewsbury-Hall feels the increased competition for places is lifting the intensity across the squad.
The midfielder also stressed the need for aggression and energy after an improved second half in their last outing.It might only take one tackle, one press. We need to be in people's faces, getting aggressive, getting the crowd up Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall on an improved second-half display last time out.Everton (@Everton) January 28, 2026
Brighton vs Everton players to watch and match context
Brighton arrive after a painful 2-1 defeat to Fulham, sealed by Harry Wilson’s free-kick in second-half stoppage time. Midfielder Yasin Ayari told BBC Sport the team lost focus at the key moment, something Brighton cannot afford against an organised Everton defence.
Ayari reflected on the collapse, saying: "I think we deserved the three points, but this is the Premier League, and you have to stay focused until the final whistle and in that game we did not. The most painful thing is knowing we could have walked away with all three points, which are vital in this moment because the table is so tight. "
One of Brighton’s main threats is Danny Welbeck, who has often enjoyed facing Everton. Welbeck has been involved in 10 Premier League goals against the Toffees, more than versus any other team, with five goals and five assists across meetings for previous clubs and Brighton.
Welbeck’s first Premier League brace came against Everton for Sunderland in November 2010. Two of the three occasions when Welbeck has delivered multiple assists in a league match also came against Everton, in April 2012 and May 2017, underlining a long-running pattern.
Everton’s danger player on current form is Thierno Barry. Barry has scored in each of Everton’s last two Premier League away games. The previous Everton player to net in three straight league matches on the road was Dominic Calvert-Lewin in December 2020.
Romelu Lukaku was the last Everton player to score in three consecutive Premier League away games during a debut campaign with the club, in October 2013. Barry now has the chance to match that achievement, while also helping Everton maintain their strong defensive run away from Goodison Park.
The Opta win probability model underlines the balance of this contest, despite Brighton’s statistical advantage.
Everton know that a positive result at Brighton, followed by further strong showings in the next four or five fixtures, could leave the team in a far stronger league position. Brighton, meanwhile, seek to halt a poor home sequence against the Toffees and stabilise their season after a run of dropped points.
