Roma and AC Milan meet at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday in a direct fight for Champions League places, with only four points between Roma in fourth and Milan in second. Both teams arrive in strong form, and the match also carries importance for the chase of leaders Inter at the top of Serie A.
Milan are unbeaten in Serie A since the opening day, with a run of 20 league matches without defeat, including 13 wins and seven draws. Roma, meanwhile, have claimed three straight league victories without conceding, and are aiming for a fourth successive clean-sheet win, something last seen under Rudi Garcia in 2013.
Massimiliano Allegri expects a high-quality contest between two direct rivals for the top four. "Roma is not a surprise, I knew wed see them
up there with Gasperini," said Allegri, who again downplayed Milan’s title talk while still pushing the squad to close the gap on Inter.
Allegri underlined the competitive nature of the Champions League race. "We're looking at four teams competing for three places. I discount Inter.They're doing very well and have a projection of 90 points. We hope that we [Italy] might get five teams in the Champions League, otherwise one gets left out. "
The Milan coach highlighted the influence of Gian Piero Gasperini on Roma’s current surge. "This will be a good game against a team that is fighting against us for a spot in the top four. Gasperini is doing a great job. The formation is typical of the coach: They're very good in the offensive phase as well as in defence. "
The weekend is upon us Centro Sportivo Milanello powered by Clivet pic.twitter.com/9wUi9gUK7YAC Milan (@acmilan) January 23, 2026
Roma vs AC Milan players to watch and key statistics
Donyell Malen is one of Roma’s main threats after scoring on a Serie A debut against Torino. In the three-points-for-a-win era, only Sergio Oliveira in January 2022 and current Inter manager Cristian Chivu in September 2003 have scored in both of their first two Serie A matches for Roma.
For Milan, Rafael Leao has often delivered against Roma. Leao has contributed to eight goals versus Roma in all competitions, with two goals and six assists, and only has more goal involvements for Milan against Lazio, with nine. Those six assists are Leao’s highest total against any single opponent in official matches.
The historical record also leans towards Milan. Milan have beaten Roma 81 times in 181 Serie A meetings, with 54 draws and 46 Roma victories. Milan have scored 262 league goals against Roma, more than against any opponent except Fiorentina, against whom Milan have struck 269 times in Serie A.
Both clubs show clear improvement compared to the same stage last season. Roma have gained 15 more points than after 21 games last year, rising from 27 to 42, matching Como for the best increase. Milan have added 12 points on last season’s tally at the same stage, moving from 34 to 46 points.
OPTA’s model suggests a very balanced Roma vs AC Milan contest, with no clear favourite. Roma’s strong run and home advantage are weighed against Milan’s long unbeaten streak, leading to a narrow statistical edge for the hosts, but also a strong possibility of shared points in a tight encounter.
| Outcome | Opta win probability |
|---|---|
| Roma | 36.2% |
| Draw | 30.4% |
| AC Milan | 33.4% |
Recent form, historic trends and Opta data all point toward a balanced Roma vs AC Milan clash, with both sides carrying strong cases for a top-four finish. Whether Roma’s defensive streak or Milan’s long unbeaten run holds firm, the result should shape the developing race behind Inter in Serie A.
