Chelsea visit Manchester City on 4 January with interim head coach Calum McFarlane preparing for a demanding Premier League debut, as Opta data gives the champions a 58.5% chance of victory and lists Chelsea at just 19.9%, underlining the scale of the challenge at the Etihad Stadium.
The fixture follows Enzo Maresca’s exit on New Year’s Day, after a 2-2 home draw with Bournemouth left Chelsea fifth and again surrendering a lead, while Manchester City enter the contest on an eight-match winning streak in top-flight home games, scoring at least three goals in seven of them.
Recent meetings point towards a Manchester City win, with City unbeaten in eight league games against Chelsea, recording six victories and two draws, while failing to score in only
one of their last 22 Premier League clashes, a 2-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge in December 2018.
Form at the Etihad also favours the hosts, as Manchester City have scored three or more goals in their last five league home matches and in eight straight home wins, while Chelsea have managed only three victories from their previous 16 Premier League visits to the stadium, drawing two and losing eleven.
Chelsea’s wider league form has dipped sharply, with just one win from seven Premier League fixtures, alongside four draws and two defeats, after a run of five wins from six that briefly stabilised Maresca’s position, though that sequence ultimately ended with the draw against Bournemouth and the decision from the hierarchy to make a change.
Erling Haaland continues to carry a major goal threat for Manchester City, scoring 11 times in eight home league appearances this season, including two goals in five different games, while his record against Chelsea shows six direct goal involvements from six Premier League meetings, with four goals and two assists.
Cole Palmer remains central to Chelsea’s attacking output, as each of Palmer’s last nine Premier League goals for Chelsea has come in London, most recently a penalty against Bournemouth, yet Palmer has not scored outside the capital since facing Southampton in December 2024 and last scored north of London at Wolves in August 2024.
Manchester City vs Chelsea prediction and managerial backdrop
The timing of Maresca’s departure removed the prospect of another Premier League meeting with Pep Guardiola, after the pair worked together at Manchester City during the 2022-23 season, and followed reports suggesting Maresca had been considered as a potential long-term successor to Guardiola, claims Maresca publicly dismissed during December.
Guardiola offered a firm defence of Maresca’s qualities after the decision, saying: "From my point of view,Chelseahave lost an incredible manager and an incredible person. It’s a decision from theChelseahierarchy, so I’ve nothing to say. How lucky I am in the club where I am. My club is extraordinary. "
Asked about future plans, Guardiola, whose contract runs until the end of 2026-27, replied: "I have one more year. I’ve been here for 10 years. I promise you, I will leave one day, but I have a contract. I want to fight with my team. The hierarchy respects methey proved last season when we didn’t win one game in three months. "
McFarlane steps up from Chelsea’s under-21s for this match, having not coached at senior Premier League level before, and the short notice was underlined by Chelsea needing to adjust McFarlane’s training ground pass on 2 January so access could be given to the club’s main press conference facilities.
We travel to Manchester for MD20.pic.twitter.com/t8jqDESbjyChelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) January 2, 2026
Reflecting on the sudden promotion, McFarlane said: "It’s been a crazy 24 hours, a whirlwind, as you can imagine, but also really enjoyable and really exciting. I can only feel positive about it. It’s an amazing experience. I am quite relaxed. I am sure as we get closer to the game, it will be more nerve-wracking. "
McFarlane added that top-level coaching is new territory, but emphasised the squad’s response and collective approach, saying: "I haven’t worked at this level before, but the lads have been brilliant, and we will do this together. I wouldn’t say we have nothing to lose. We have to give a really good account of ourselves. "
Chelsea’s historical record at Manchester City offers limited comfort, as after four straight away league wins between 2005 and 2008, the club have struggled at the ground, while Chelsea’s first league fixture of a year has also been difficult, with just one win in the last nine calendar years, a 1-0 success over Fulham in 2024.

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