Portugal enter the World Cup believing a first global crown is realistic, with Bruno Fernandes central to those hopes. Opta’s supercomputer gives Portugal a 7% chance of lifting the trophy, the fifth-highest projection overall. Among nations still chasing a maiden title, Portugal currently hold the best modelled probability of winning.
That optimism grows as Portugal prepare for their opening match against DR Congo, with Fernandes stressing the squad’s ambition and mindset. Speaking ahead of the tournament, Fernandes underlined that this generation aims to change the country’s World Cup story and deliver a historic breakthrough for Portuguese football.
Reflecting on the target that unites the group, Fernandes told FIFA: "The dream is to be world
champions, he told FIFA. The key is to focus on what we can do to change the fact that Portugal have never won it and become the first side to bring the coveted World Cup back home. "
Fernandes pointed to recent success in the Nations League as further proof of progress. "We feel good about [the Nations League win in 2024-25]. It's positive for us, and it shows there's confidence in our overall quality and in the calibre of the players representing Portugal right now. We know that we're a very strong group. We genuinely believe we can have a great World Cup. It fills me with confidence when I look around and see an incredible team willing to do whatever it takes at any moment. It's not about helping me but helping everyone reach our final objective. "
Portugal’s belief is also shaped by the nation’s previous deep runs at World Cups, even without a title. The team achieved third place in 1966, which remains their best finish to date. Another semi-final followed in 2006, when Portugal lost to France and then fell to hosts Germany.
The latest projections from Opta highlight how this campaign compares with that past record. Portugal are assessed among the leading contenders before kick-off, sitting behind four countries in predicted chances. Yet, among all teams still seeking a first title, Portugal appear as the most likely winners.
| Team | World Cup titles | Best previous finish | Opta win probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 0 | 3rd place (1966) | 7% |
Portugal World Cup squad led by Cristiano Ronaldo
On the pitch, Cristiano Ronaldo continues to shape Portugal’s World Cup identity and expectations. Ronaldo is preparing for a record sixth appearance at the tournament, still chasing the one major trophy missing from an extensive career, and remains the central reference point for Portugal’s attack.
The Portugal captain already holds a unique scoring mark on this stage. Ronaldo is the only player to have found the net in five different World Cup editions. For Fernandes and team-mates, that level of experience and productivity is seen as a crucial asset during this extended campaign.
Fernandes described the influence of the forward in detail. "It's a huge privilege for us to have Cristiano as a compatriot, a team-mate and a player who can take us closer to winning the World Cup, he added. I think we can always learn from him. He's shown his resilience throughout his career. He has that winning mentality; he is never satisfied with what he's achieved, and he always strives for more. Those are all such positive qualities we've taken from his career. The fact he's managed to play for 20 years shows that all of that was, and still is, necessary to perform at the highest level for so long. Those factors go hand in hand with the talent he's shown over the years. More than anything, I hope he can replicate that with us at the World Cup, helping us as he's always done, scoring more goals and taking us closer to our objective. "
Portugal World Cup group schedule and conditions
Portugal begin their Group K schedule on Wednesday against DR Congo before facing Uzbekistan and then Colombia. All three fixtures will test different qualities within the squad, from breaking down compact defences to handling technically strong opponents across the group phase of the World Cup.
| Stage | Opponents | Group |
|---|---|---|
| Group match 1 | DR Congo | Group K |
| Group match 2 | Uzbekistan | Group K |
| Group match 3 | Colombia | Group K |
The build-up to the opener in Houston has also been shaped by developments off the pitch. Reports indicate that head coach Roberto Martinez has chosen not to extend a deal with Portugal. Current information suggests Martinez will depart following the tournament, regardless of how far Portugal progress.
Despite that situation, expectations around the squad remain focused on performance rather than long-term planning. Martinez and the players share the same short-term target of finishing this World Cup with the trophy. That shared objective, combined with experience from Ronaldo and leadership from Fernandes, frames Portugal’s latest attempt to claim a first title.
A toda a velocidade para o nosso primeiro jogo #VaiDarPortugal | #FIFAWorldCup pic.twitter.com/fZGsLgD2SnPortugal (@selecaoportugal) June 16, 2026
Portugal reach this World Cup with strong analytics support, historical semi-final experience and a squad led by Ronaldo and Fernandes. With Martinez seeking a winning farewell and the group encouraged by a recent Nations League title, Portugal approach Group K in Houston convinced that a first global triumph is within reach.
