Aston Villa aim to respond quickly from the 4-1 defeat at Arsenal as Unai Emery urges a strong reaction when Nottingham Forest visit Villa Park for Villa’s first home match of 2026, with Villa protecting a 10-game winning streak on their own ground in all competitions.
Villa stay third in the Premier League despite the heavy loss and are now six points behind Arsenal, yet Emery wants the squad and supporters to maintain belief and ambition as the club targets sustained Champions League contention during a demanding domestic campaign.
Emery stressed that Aston Villa must keep their approach despite the setback at Emirates Stadium, highlighting both pride and high standards within the squad and fanbase as Villa chase another victory at Villa Park
to extend a home run last bettered between October 1989 and January 1990.
Emery said: "We are going to play on Saturday, keep the same mentality we have, and until now, very proud [of] everything we are doing with our supporters. The league is the most difficult league in the world, and there are 17 contenders at the beginning of the season to be in the top seven, and then we are trying always to beat some of them. Until now, we are doing [that], but the challenge we have is clear: try to keep the same consistency, the same demands we have, being ambitious with our supporters. "
The Arsenal defeat ended Villa’s sequence of eight Premier League victories and 11 wins in all competitions, yet the side has enjoyed complete success in the most recent 10 home fixtures, and confidence remains strong ahead of another key test against a Forest team fighting near the bottom.
Starting at our place pic.twitter.com/seRfHWVshf Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) January 1, 2026
Nottingham Forest sit 17th in the Premier League, four points clear of the relegation places, and arrive in poor form after three straight defeats, including a 2-0 loss to Sean Dyche’s former club Everton, increasing pressure to collect points away to high-flying Aston Villa.
Owner Evangelos Marinakis addressed Forest supporters and staff with a New Year message that recognised the club’s improvement over recent seasons but accepted that current league results fall short of expectations while urging resilience and focus for the second half of the campaign.
Marinakis said: "We should all reflect on how far this club has come and how much has been achieved in only a short space of time. Expectations have rightly been set very highmore challenging periods have demanded resilience and unity, and we have shown ourselves capable of both. Those moments do not define us, nor do they diminish our long-term objectives. United in purpose and clear in direction, we are focused on the future and firm in the belief that Nottingham Forest will move forward even stronger. "
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: Key players and attacking threat
Ollie Watkins is again central for Aston Villa after scoring three goals across the last two Premier League matches, matching the previous 19-game league total, although Watkins’ most recent five top-flight goals all arrived away from home, with the last Villa Park league strike coming against Fulham in September.
Forest’s attacking hopes again lean on Morgan Gibbs-White, who shares the club’s Premier League scoring lead on three goals with Callum Hudson-Odoi but has produced those returns from 40 shots, only 11 on target, with a 7.5% conversion rate compared to an expected goals figure of 4.5.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: Historical record and opening-year trends
Aston Villa have not lost any of the last six Premier League home meetings with Nottingham Forest, winning the most recent five after a defeat in October 1994 under Ron Atkinson, though Forest have still claimed two victories in the last four league clashes overall between the clubs.
Villa opened 2025 with a 2-1 Premier League win over Leicester City, yet they have not recorded victories in back-to-back opening league fixtures across calendar years since 2008 and 2009, adding an extra statistical angle as Emery’s side begin their 2026 league schedule.
Forest usually start calendar years relatively well, winning their first league match in five of the last seven seasons, including a 3-0 away victory at Wolves in 2025, while the other two results during that period were a 1-1 draw against Chelsea in 2023 and a 2-3 defeat at Brentford in 2024.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: Goals, clean sheets and win probability
Attacking output remains a major concern for Nottingham Forest, who have failed to score in 10 separate Premier League fixtures this season, the joint-highest figure in the division, and only Wolves, with 11, have found the net fewer times than Forest’s 18 league goals so far.
Based on expected outcomes, Opta’s model gives Aston Villa a strong chance of victory, reflecting their home record and league position, while Nottingham Forest are rated outsiders, with the draw viewed as a less likely outcome than a home win but still a realistic possibility.
| Result | Opta win probability |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 67.5% |
| Draw | 17.9% |
| Nottingham Forest | 14.6% |
With Aston Villa pursuing another statement home performance and Nottingham Forest attempting to halt a poor run while staying above the relegation line, the match brings together contrasting aims, yet both clubs enter 2026 aware of clear targets and the pressure to respond to recent results.
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