Burnley approach the Nottingham Forest trip knowing relegation from the Premier League is almost certain, yet Scott Parker is demanding a full response. With six matches left, the meeting at the City Ground could confirm their slide, while also shaping which other club joins Burnley in the Championship for 2026-27.
Last weekend’s 2-0 defeat to Brighton left Burnley 12 points behind 17th-placed West Ham, with only 18 points available. The gap means survival hopes are minimal, but Parker insists the squad must treat every remaining fixture as meaningful, starting with Sunday’s clash against fellow strugglers Nottingham Forest.
The Opta supercomputer rates Burnley’s chances of going down at 100%, alongside Wolves, highlighting the scale of the task.
Tottenham are given a 50.8% relegation probability, with West Ham at 38%. Nottingham Forest’s situation is less severe, with a 9.5% chance, yet the schedule facing Vitor Pereira’s side looks demanding.
Forest sit three points above the bottom three after drawing 1-1 with Aston Villa in their last league outing. That result extended some breathing space, but the remaining fixtures are difficult, keeping them tied into the survival battle. Sunday’s match with Burnley therefore carries high importance for both clubs’ immediate futures.
Nottingham Forest enter this game on a four-match unbeaten Premier League streak, with one win and three draws. That sequence equals their best run this season. They last put together a longer top-flight unbeaten spell between December 2024 and January 2025, when Nuno Espirito Santo oversaw an eight-game stretch without defeat.
Burnley’s recent Premier League record across the 2023-24 and 2025-26 seasons has been harsh. Across those two top-flight campaigns, Burnley have suffered 44 defeats in 70 league matches, winning nine and drawing 17. Despite spending 2024-25 in the Championship, only five clubs have lost more Premier League games since August 2023.
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley defensive and statistical picture
Burnley’s defensive numbers this season underline why safety has drifted away. Burnley have faced 533 shots and 181 shots on target, both the highest figures in the league. Opponents have generated an expected goals total of 64.0 against Burnley, while creating 99 big chances and registering 1,051 touches in Burnley’s penalty area.
Those struggles helped Brighton claim a 2-0 victory last weekend, yet Parker was encouraged by Burnley’s attitude. "I didn't see a team I can be critical of in terms of work-rate and endeavour. It was a team that was fully committed," Parker said, stressing that application rather than desire remains the main concern.
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley: Parker’s view on survival fight
Parker accepts the mathematics are bleak and made that clear when reflecting on the table. "The reality is that the chances are slim. The games are running out, but we need to keep fighting between now and the end of the season. " That message underlines Parker’s wish to maintain standards despite the likely outcome.
Parker also spoke about the psychological test awaiting Burnley across the final stretch. "The biggest challenge for us now is what we're going to be for the remaining six games, so we'll endeavour to stay on this path, keep learning, keep trying to improve and keep fighting away. " Parker wants commitment sustained regardless of results.
Burnley’s head coach highlighted the strength of the clubs also caught near the bottom. "Games are running out and you're fighting with Tottenham, West Ham and Nottingham Forest and it probably shows the level of what is down there. Those teams that are down there, you probably never would have suspected would have been down there and those teams, at times, are picking up points and we're not. "
We travel to Nottingham on Sunday pic.twitter.com/58pa7CmJrwBurnley FC (@BurnleyOfficial) April 16, 2026
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley key players and chances
Forest’s attacking width has been boosted by Neco Williams, who scored in the 1-1 draw with Aston Villa. Williams has created 32 chances in the league this season, with 28 from open play. Only Callum Hudson-Odoi and Morgan Gibbs-White, both on 44 chances, have supplied more opportunities for Nottingham Forest.
Burnley’s main threat from dead-ball situations is James Ward-Prowse, who arrived on 11 February. Since that debut, no Premier League player has created more chances from set plays than Ward-Prowse, with eight. Across the 2025-26 season, Ward-Prowse averages 1.9 set-piece chances per 90 minutes, the highest rate since Kieran Trippier’s 2022-23 return.
Forest’s domestic battle runs alongside a major European opportunity. Pereira’s team have reached the Europa League semi-finals, where they will face Aston Villa in an all-English tie. Morgan Gibbs-White scored a deflected goal in a 1-0 home win over Porto on Thursday, giving Forest a 2-1 aggregate victory in the quarter-finals.
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley prediction and probabilities
Recent history between the clubs gives Burnley some encouragement, as Forest have won only one of the last eight league meetings, drawing five and losing two, though that victory came in May 2024, a 2-1 success at Turf Moor. Current form and league position still leave Nottingham Forest clear favourites at the City Ground.
Nottingham Forest are given a 62.3% chance of victory by Opta, with Burnley at 17.7% and the draw at 20%. Forest’s longer unbeaten run, Burnley’s defensive frailties and the differing relegation probabilities all point towards a home win, while Parker’s side seek pride and resistance in what appears a near-impossible survival task.
