WSL Predictions: Chelsea Close The Gap On Man City As Title Race Tightens For MD12

The Women’s Super League resumes after the winter break with Manchester City six points clear, Chelsea chasing, and Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham fighting for Champions League spots. Managerial changes at West Ham and London City Lionesses add intrigue, while every club aims to begin 2026 strongly across a busy MD12 schedule shaped by Opta supercomputer projections.

Those Opta forecasts suggest City and Chelsea are heavy favourites, while Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool face more finely balanced contests that could swing the table. With West Ham and London City under new leadership, and several clubs on contrasting runs of form, MD12 looks set to define early 2026 momentum in the WSL.

Manchester City enter the new year in control of

the title race, having won 10 straight league games and converting 84.8% of Opta’s pre-match predictions during that streak. Andrée Jeglertz’s side average 2.6 points per game in January and hold a six-point cushion over Chelsea at the WSL summit.

City face Everton next, holding 17 wins from 19 WSL meetings between the teams, with one draw and one defeat. City have scored 32 league goals this season, eight more than any other side, averaging 2.9 per game. Khadija Shaw has eight goals across her last four WSL appearances, including four against Aston Villa, and has scored in each of six starts versus Everton.

Everton’s challenge is considerable despite taking all their 2025-26 points away from home so far, eight from eight. They have only one win in their last 10 league matches, drawing two and losing seven. Opta gives Everton a 5.6% chance of victory and a 9.6% likelihood of a draw in this trip to the leaders.

Chelsea, who collected 56 league points in 2025, now trail City after a late-year dip and a 1-0 home loss to Everton. Despite that setback, the Opta model assigns Chelsea a 90.1% chance of beating West Ham, with just a 3.4% likelihood of a Hammers win and 6.5% for a draw.

West Ham’s new head coach Rita Guarino becomes the first Italian to manage in the WSL and must tackle worrying away form. West Ham have lost six successive league games on the road and have never beaten Chelsea in 15 WSL meetings, with Chelsea winning 13 and drawing two, the longest unbeaten record of one side against another in the competition.

Arsenal’s meeting with Manchester United at the Emirates could reshape the Champions League race, as Arsenal sit one point ahead of United before MD12. Opta gives the Gunners a 52.5% win probability, compared to 23.3% for United and 24.3% for a draw, with victory lifting Arsenal above Chelsea into second place.

Arsenal’s record against United is mixed, with only two wins from the last eight WSL encounters, alongside four draws and two defeats, including a 0-0 draw earlier this season. Yet games between these sides have not produced two draws in the same league campaign. Renee Slegers’ team is unbeaten in six league fixtures, winning four and drawing two, and now targets a third straight victory.

Manchester United appear more vulnerable than earlier in 2025, winning only one of their last four league games, with one draw and two defeats. Marc Skinner’s team conceded 12 goals across their final seven league matches of 2025, just two fewer than across the first 16 games of that year, a figure the head coach will want to tighten quickly.

Women's Super League WSL mid-table battles

Tottenham remain close to the top four, two points behind the Champions League places ahead of facing ninth-place Leicester City. Spurs are unbeaten in nine WSL matches against Leicester, winning seven and drawing two, and have won every home game versus the Foxes 1-0. Opta rates Tottenham as 60.2% favourites to extend that dominance.

Home form strengthens Tottenham’s position, with 13 points gained on their own ground, second only to Manchester City’s 18. Leicester earned just a second league win of the season last time out but hold only an 18.9% chance of success here. Leicester also remain on the longest away winless streak in WSL history, 21 matches, with seven draws and 14 defeats.

Aston Villa’s clash with Brighton brings together two inconsistent sides aiming to stabilise. Villa lost 6-1 to Manchester City in their previous league outing and have suffered three defeats in their last four WSL games, winning one. However, Opta still gives Villa a 48.9% chance of victory at Villa Park.

Brighton have struggled against Villa in recent seasons, winning once in their last seven league meetings, drawing two and losing four, that sole win a 4-2 home success in October 2024. Villa are unbeaten in three home WSL matches against Brighton, winning two and drawing one, having previously lost the first two such fixtures. Brighton are rated at 25.4% to win, with a 25.7% chance of a draw.

Women's Super League WSL relegation fight and form teams

The weekend closes with a key meeting at the bottom, as winless Liverpool host London City Lionesses, who recently changed head coach. Despite sitting sixth, Jocelyn Precheur was dismissed after two straight defeats. Eder Maestre steps in and faces Liverpool in the first match in charge, hoping to repeat London City’s 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture.

London City aim to become the first promoted team since Leicester in 2021-22, against Birmingham City, to complete a WSL double over an opponent. However, Liverpool’s home advantage means Opta gives the hosts a 45.7% chance of taking their first three points of the season, with London City rated at 27.5% for victory.

Liverpool’s league form across 2025 has been challenging, with 11 winless matches this season, three draws and eight defeats. They earned the fewest points, 19, of any ever-present WSL club during 2025 and suffered 14 league losses. Matt Beard will hope a new calendar year and home fixture can trigger an overdue upturn for Liverpool.

Across MD12, the Opta supercomputer projects strong wins for Manchester City, Chelsea and Tottenham, tougher assignments for Arsenal and Liverpool, and potential turning points for West Ham and London City Lionesses under new management. With title, European qualification and survival battles all in motion, the first round of 2026 WSL fixtures is set to heavily influence the season’s second half.