Arsenal carry a narrow 3-2 lead into the EFL Cup semi-final second leg against Chelsea, with a place at Wembley on the line and talk of a possible quadruple hovering in the background as both clubs chase
silverware across multiple competitions this season.
Mikel Arteta’s side are six points clear in the Premier League and remain active in both the Champions League and FA Cup, yet the head coach has urged focus on the next 90 minutes at Emirates Stadium rather than wider ambitions, as Chelsea arrive buoyed by a spirited run of form.
Asked about Arsenal’s prospects of a domestic treble or even a quadruple, Arteta was clear that such discussion holds little value while crucial matches remain. Arteta said: "There's no point talking about it. All we can talk about and control is what we do daily to sustain the level that we have, or to improve it, I think. "
Arteta emphasised that progress must be measured step by step across each competition, starting with this semi-final. Arteta continued: "We go day by day, competition by competition, and tomorrow we have a really tough game against a very good Chelsea side. We have home advantage, we had a good result from the first leg, but we still have a lot to do tomorrow to earn the right to be in the final. "
Arsenal’s previous EFL Cup final appearance came in 2017-18, when they lost to Manchester City, having also fallen to Birmingham City in 2011-12 and Chelsea in 2006-07, so this campaign offers a chance to end a long wait for a trophy last lifted in 1992-93 and also keep alive hopes of a historic clean sweep of major titles.
Arteta underlined the importance of the second leg as the closest immediate route to silverware, urging the home support to play a full part in north London. Arteta said: "The next one is always the most important one, and it is the closest for us to at least reach a final. Tomorrow we are going to have people who really need to create the atmosphere, the energy, the belief that we are going to do it. "
A big semi-final second leg is coming up next. pic.twitter.com/gYB792tIJi Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) February 2, 2026
Arsenal vs Chelsea EFL Cup form and Rosenior perspective
Arsenal prepared for this tie by beating Leeds United 4-0 in the Premier League, while Chelsea arrive after a dramatic 3-2 comeback victory against West Ham, a result that extended Liam Rosenior’s winning streak to five matches since the first leg, which was Rosenior’s second game in charge of Chelsea.
Despite that surge, Rosenior does not view the semi-final as a personal audition at Stamford Bridge. Rosenior said: "I'll be really honest. All this proof of me being right for the job or not, I don't really care. I'm here to do the job," before stressing that team success outweighs individual narratives.
Rosenior further distanced the occasion from any focus on reputation and insisted the club’s progress comes first. Rosenior added: "If we get to the final, it's great for Chelsea Football Club that we're in the final. It's not about me. I will prove in time whether I'm worthy or whether I'm not, but it's not at the forefront of my mind. "
Arsenal vs Chelsea EFL Cup players to watch
Bukayo Saka has been one of the EFL Cup’s most creative players this season, averaging 3.7 chances created per 90 minutes among those with at least 180 minutes, a figure bettered only by Rubin Colwill’s 4.2, yet an injury in the warm-up at Elland Road meant Saka missed Arsenal’s win over Leeds United.
In Saka’s absence, former Chelsea winger Noni Madueke stepped into the Arsenal lineup and delivered a goal and an assist, also attempting six dribbles and completing four, more than any other Arsenal player on the pitch, underlining Madueke’s potential influence if Saka is again unavailable or limited for this semi-final.
Pure impact. Noni bringing the spark pic.twitter.com/g2e2nG8ejw Arsenal (@Arsenal) February 1, 2026
Chelsea’s main attacking threat in the EFL Cup has been Alejandro Garnacho, who has contributed seven goals and three assists across the last six appearances in the competition, including two-goal substitute displays against Cardiff City in the quarter-finals and against Arsenal in the first leg, which suggests Garnacho could again be decisive whether starting or coming from the bench.
Arsenal vs Chelsea EFL Cup history and probabilities
Arsenal’s 3-2 success at Stamford Bridge placed them in a traditionally strong position, as before this season only two of 32 teams who won the first leg of an EFL Cup semi-final away from home were later eliminated, with West Ham in 1971-72 against Stoke City and Tottenham in 1986-87 versus Arsenal the rare exceptions.
Chelsea, however, have often responded well in this situation, progressing from three of their last four EFL Cup semi-finals after losing the first leg, including overturning a deficit against Arsenal in 1997-98 with a 3-1 home win after a 2-1 away defeat, before going on to lift the trophy that season.
Recent meetings favour Arsenal, who are unbeaten in nine games against Chelsea in all competitions, recording six wins and three draws in that sequence, their best stretch against this opponent since a 17-match run between 1999 and 2004, while Chelsea have lost their last three visits to Arsenal, last suffering a longer away sequence between 1990 and 1994, when they lost five straight.
Opta’s pre-match supercomputer gives Arsenal a strong chance of advancing, with the Gunners forecast to progress within 90 minutes in 82.1% of simulations, although historical EFL Cup home results show some vulnerability, as Arsenal have lost nine of their last 15 home matches in the competition against other Premier League clubs, winning five and drawing one.
| Outcome | Opta Probability |
|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 62% |
| Chelsea win | 17.9% |
| Draw | 20.1% |
With Arsenal defending a slim advantage and both teams in positive domestic form, the semi-final second leg brings together historical trends, statistical projections and current momentum, leaving Arteta’s team viewed as favourites but still needing a controlled performance against a Chelsea side that has overturned similar positions in past EFL Cup campaigns.


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